With Horwath out as MPP, what happens next for Hamilton Centre and the NDP?
The provincial riding, which the NDP won on June 2, will now have an empty seat
What comes next for the Ontario NDP and the provincial riding of Hamilton Centre now that Andrea Horwath is leaving her seat to run for mayor?
The former NDP leader has served as MPP since 2004, first in Hamilton East and then Hamilton Centre, where she was re-elected for the role on June 2.
It is now up to Premier Doug Ford to call a byelection as laid out in the Legislative Assembly Act, David Bogart, communications officer for the Legislative Assembly of Ontario, told CBC Hamilton. A seat can stay vacant for up to six months, meaning a byelection could be called before or after the Oct. 24 municipal election.
Parties do not need to wait for a writ in order to nominate a candidate to run, however.
"The process of vetting and naming candidates in each of the ridings falls to the party if an individual wishes to run for the seat to become one of their recognized representatives," said Bogart.
Ontario NDP Provincial Director Lucy Watson said in the event of an MPP vacating their seat, the party would nominate an "equity-deserving candidate to replace them."
That might mean "a woman, a candidate who is Black, Indigenous or racialized, a person from the 2SLGBTQ+ community or a candidate with a disability," Watson said in an email to CBC on Monday. The party would not comment on Horwath's departure.
In the recent provincial election, the candidates running in Hamilton Centre were Progressive Conservative Sarah Bokhari, Liberal Ekaterini Dimakis and for the Greens, Sandy Crawley.
Experts say NDP has opportunity for renewal
Karen Bird, a McMaster University political science professor, said it's unlikely the NDP will lose the riding.
"I think the NDP has enough depth and talent that they would find someone and run a byelection. It's early in the provincial term," she said. "It wouldn't be a major disruption."
Liam Midzain-Gobin, a Brock University assistant professor of political science, also said he thinks the NDP will hold on to the seat, pointing to NDP MP Matthew Green's success in the riding.
He said Horwath's departure offers "a real opportunity for renewal" for the riding and the party.
Midzain-Gobin, who lives in Hamilton Centre, said the party would likely want a candidate connected to the riding and someone who could "speak up for the diverse needs of the area."
"When you look at the makeup of the riding, it looks really different depending on where you're sitting in the riding but one kind of issue the riding has had to deal with and will be dealing with going forward is that there's a lot of change to be coming," he said.
"Somebody with a real willingness to listen and a real willingness to put in the work to address the concerns of constituents, especially those who are being pushed out of housing and business opportunities, I think that is probably what would be best for the party."
Midzain-Gobin also said if Horwath becomes mayor, it could help the Ontario NDP build on its status as official opposition.
"Having someone in one of the largest cities in the province as mayor to be there as a potential ally, that can be a real coup for them," he said.
"That could be really helpful to be able to take the resources of what a big city mayor has at their disposal in terms of policy planning [and] the knowledge they have of the needs of their community."