Ford's focus on tariffs not enough to 'unsettle' NDP in Niagara, most of Hamilton: expert

Doug Ford's Progressive Conservatives (PCs) won a third straight majority government Thursday night, but in the Hamilton and Niagara region, the NDP were able to hold onto all but one of their seats that were at risk of a switch. 

Early poll projections and analysis showed that the NDP might be in some trouble in their three ridings in Niagara as well as three ridings in Hamilton.

But while the party lost Hamilton Mountain to the PCs, they were able to hold on to the other five. 

Robin Lennox was victorious for the NDP in Hamilton Centre, the NPD's Sandy Shaw won the Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas riding, Niagara Centre saw Jeff Burch emerge as the winner, Niagara Falls was won by Wayne Gates and Jennie Stevens was re-elected in St. Catharines.

Premier Doug Ford triggered the snap election on Jan. 28 asking voters for an historic mandate to combat tariff threats from the U.S. President Donald Trump. By early Friday, the PCs were elected or leading in 80 of Ontario's 124 seats.

While Trump's tariff threat was the main focus of Ford's PC campaign, and is an issue that is top-of-mind for Canadians, it was not enough to "unsettle" the NDP in Hamilton and Niagara, says McMaster University politics Prof. Peter Graefe.

"The thought that Ford running on tariffs was likely to unsettle a number of NDP seats in more industrial centres like Welland, Niagara, St. Catharines and Hamilton didn't happen ultimately, despite [the NDP] going down in the share of popular vote across the province," Graefe said.

"The incumbents here were able to hold off against the strategy of the conservatives to try and grow their majority by taking those types of seats themselves," Graefe added.

Mountain result means more local cabinet options

With most of the Hamilton-area MPPs having "been there for a while now," Graefe believes it will be "business as usual" and they will just "probably fall back into an old pattern."

Not only did most NDP seats remain the same in the region, several PCs were also re-elected, including Donna Skelly in Flamborough-Glanbrook, Sam Oosterhoff in Niagara West, Will Bouma in Brantford-Brant, Neil Lumsden in Hamilton East-Stoney Creek and Effie Triantafilopoulos in Oakville North-Burlington. 

But the election of candidate Monica Ciriello in Hamilton Mountain, a riding NDP's Monique Taylor held since 2011 until she decided not to seek re-election this year, gives the PCs a "credible" person in the region to be a cabinet minister, according to Graefe.

Ciriello, who was the city's bylaw director, is a lawyer and would provide a somewhat "different demographic face to a PC caucus, which is otherwise fairly older … and does not have a lot of strong women or younger women in their ranks."

Until the election, Lumsden was the only local PC MPP to hold a cabinet position, as minister of sport. 

"There's a possibility that Hamilton will be much better represented at the cabinet table should [Ciriello] make her way into cabinet, maybe not right away, but in a year or two," Graefe said.

Repairing 'divisions' in Hamilton Centre

NDP newcomer Lennox, now the MMP-elect in Hamilton Centre, has her job cut out for her "repairing some of the conflicts" among people in her riding, Graefe said.

Citing "divisions" between the NDP's base and Independent Sarah Jama's campaign, Graefe said he believes this "would be a particular challenge" for Lennox.

Jama, who was the incumbent MPP, ran as an Independent candidate after the Ontario New Democrats rejected her attempt to rejoin the party.

In October 2023, Jama was ousted from the party after she made a statement in support of Palestinians following the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas attack on Israel that prompted Israel's retaliation in Gaza. 

She represented the riding independently for more than a year, but told CBC Hamilton in January that she'd submitted a vetting package to the NDP to run as their candidate once again. The NDP rejected the submission.

Following her defeat Thursday night, Jama said people should not count her out of politics just yet.

"Even though the results are not what we wanted, I hold a lot of hope in this idea that we did something beautiful in Hamilton Centre," Jama told CBC Hamilton.

"We definitely paved a way, a pathway for people to consider doing politics differently. And even though the results were not what we expected, the work doesn't stop here. I'll be continuing to do what I can to make sure that we're challenging systems that are broken and making sure that we're building community here in Hamilton Centre."

PCs now have 'a comfortable four years'

Brock University politics Prof. Stefan Dolgert said the new MPPs must now focus on the things that are important to voters.

In addition to preparing Ontario for the effects of tariffs, Dolgert said there are several "really important" issues —  cost of living, housing and health care.

"[There] are two and a half million Ontarians who don't have a doctor. So, I would say all of those should be priorities, and the PCs did say that those things were all important to them," Dolgert said.

"It's just an open question how much they'll actually do on those now that they have a comfortable four years."