New Hamilton riding's first election means a wide open race

As NDP leader Thomas Mulcair stood on a wooden platform in Dundas Tuesday, it was more than just a party announcement — it was visibility in a brand new riding where the outcome is anyone's game.

His announcement was relevant to Hamilton — new tax rates he claimed will make it easier for small business. And Bienenstock Playgrounds, which makes playgrounds from natural materials, was an eye-catching place to do it.

But the deeper context is Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas (HWAD) is a new riding, and because of how its been assembled, any of the three major parties could win. The Conservatives, Liberals and NDP have each won parts of the area in the past, so in this, the riding's first ever election, there is no natural favourite. Mulcair's visit was an effort to boost the chances of his local candidate, Alex Johnstone.

In this case, we have a riding where it's really a toss up.- Peter Graefe, McMaster University professor

It's odd to have a riding where there is a true three-way race, said Peter Graefe, a McMaster University political scientist. Most races are blue versus orange right now, or blue versus red. But this is one of the few in Canada where all three parties have a shot.

When you transpose past election results, Graefe said, anyone could — and has — won this area.

"In this case, we have a riding where it's really a toss up."

Historically, the area from Trinity Road to West 5th, and the CN line through Dundas down to Transmission Line in Ancaster, has been cut a few ways.

HWAD was created in 2012 after a review of federal election boundaries. It draws in parts of Hamilton Centre (an NDP stronghold), Hamilton Mountain (currently NDP) and Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborough-Westdale (Conservative federally, Liberal provincially). The Oct. 19 election is its first time in action.

It's supposed to be one of the closest races in the country.- Alex Johnstone, HWAD NDP candidate

The riding of 109,575 people is slightly more female than male, and the median age of electors is 42, Statistics Canada data shows. There are slightly more married people than singles. The majority of voters are white, speak English and live in single-family homes.

Mulcair was fairly vague on Tuesday about the importance of the riding, saying Hamilton is already an NDP area.

'We're going to take the rest of them'

"Don't forget that we already hold three ridings in Hamilton, and we're going to take the rest of them as well," he told reporters.

I'm a new candidate, so of course I'm not going to take anything for granted.- Vincent Samuel, Conservative candidate

But afterward, NDP candidate Johnstone, a local school board trustee, said HWAD is an "extremely important riding."

"It's very much a bellwether riding, and it's supposed to be one of the closest races in the country," she said. "But certainly with Hamilton West and the redrawing of the boundary, the NDP has an excellent chance to win here."

Vincent Samuel, a retired health-care worker, is running for the Conservative party. Filomena Tassi, a chaplain at Bishop Tonnos Catholic Secondary School in Ancaster, is carrying the Liberal banner. Tassi made headlines last year when she described herself as "pro-life" in the media, but promised to vote along party lines if elected. Peter Ormond, a long-time Green Party candidate in Hamilton, is running for the Greens again.

'Not going to take anything for granted'

When asked about the three-way split, Samuel points out that Conservative incumbent MP David Sweet, now running in the new riding of Flamborough-Glanbrook, has held Dundas for nine years.

I know people love doing poll analysis and looking at things that way.- Filomena Tassi, Liberal candidate

Samuel says that gives him an edge. "But at the same time, I'm a new candidate, so of course I'm not going to take anything for granted."

Tassi insists she's not thinking about it, just focusing on her own campaign.

"I know people love doing poll analysis and looking at things that way," she said. "My response really is to work as hard as I can."

Graefe says with the tight race, he's surprised the parties didn't field bigger name candidates to try to cement the seat. But it's an unusual situation, he said.

"This is a weird one because there are three parties that have a shot at it."