Why party leaders are stopping in Waterloo region as Ontario's election campaign wraps
NDP could pick up seats, PCs must play defence, Éric Grenier says
With less than a week left in the Ontario election campaign, it appears party leaders are making stops in Waterloo region a priority.
And it's no wonder, says Andrea Perrella, associate professor of political science at Wilfrid Laurier University.
"There are some pretty tight races in the region of Waterloo," he said.
He noted the three local ridings to watch are:
- Kitchener South-Hespeler where there is no incumbent after Amy Fee, a Progressive Conservative elected in 2018, opted not to seek re-election.
- Cambridge because the incumbent, Belinda Karahalios, has formed the New Blue Party with her husband after she was removed from the Progressive Conservative caucus in 2020.
- Kitchener-Conestoga where the race in 2018 was a close one, with Progressive Conservative Mike Harris beating NDP candidate, Kelly Dick, by fewer than 700 votes.
Cambridge, Perrella noted, is "a seat that [Progressive Conservative Leader] Doug Ford really wants to keep and he likely will" but there's a threat in the riding.
"Of all the places in Ontario where the New Blue Party can elect somebody, it would be Cambridge because of Belinda Karahalios," he said.
Kitchener-Conestoga is where Karahalios' husband, Jim, is running for New Blue, so Perrella said it will be interesting to see if that will affect Harris' chances to retain his seat.
"It's really an egg on the top of a roof and see which way it's going to roll," he said of the riding.
Éric Grenier, a polls analyst, writer at The Writ and the person behind CBC's Poll Tracker, says there are lots of very close ridings in Waterloo region that the NDP "may be able to pick off and the PCs have to play defence in."
"The Kitchener-Waterloo area is the kind of area that the PCs have got to make sure that they can hold because if they're losing seats there, it probably means they're losing seats in other, important decisive swing ridings in other parts of the province," he said.
No safe seats
Perrella says while three of the five ridings in Waterloo region could be close races, it doesn't mean NDP incumbents Catherine Fife in Waterloo and Laura Mae Lindo in Kitchener Centre should get too comfortable and assume a win.
"One of the factors that led to the NDP winning a lot of seats in 2018 was great disaffection from Liberal voters who defected to the NDP, and a lot of those defectors are going back to the Liberals, so a lot of the NDP vote in Kitchener Centre may bleed away," Perrella said.
In Waterloo, where Fife has served since winning a byelection in 2012, he said people like her, but "sometimes voters look past the representative, they look past the candidate and they look at the bigger picture terms of the parties."
"I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of even loyal NDP voters are asking themselves, if we really want to kick out Doug Ford, do I really want to vote NDP?" said Perrella. "And that's the message that the Liberal Party is pushing hard, that they're the only party that can displace Doug Ford."
That may also mean that if the NDP and Liberals split supporters, PC candidates in those ridings could come up the middle, he said.
Leaders stop in region
NDP Leader Andrea Horwath stopped in the region Thursday, touting her party's plan to improve the health-care system.
She previously visited the region on May 3, one day before the campaign got officially underway, and had brunch at a home in Ayr on May 8, Mother's Day, where she pointed out all the NDP's candidates in Waterloo region's five ridings are mothers.
As well, federal NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh visited the region to stump for local candidates.
Progressive Conservative Leader Doug Ford is set to make his third appearance of the Ontario election campaign in Waterloo region Friday evening for a rally at Bingemans in Kitchener.
Ford was in Kitchener on May 12 to re-announce that his party would build a new Highway 7 between Kitchener and Guelph. He also visited Cambridge on May 21 to talk about his party's promise to build more homes.
Liberal Leader Steven Del Duca visited the region early on in the campaign on May 6. His campaign said Del Duca is expected to make another stop in the region next week before voting day on June 2.
Green Leader Mike Schreiner, who has been campaigning in his home riding of Guelph with some trips to other parts of the province, visited Waterloo region on May 9 for a housing announcement.
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