COVID-19 cases in London, Ont., may soon rise but symptoms might be less intense, experts say

As fall quickly approaches and a highly mutated COVID-19 variant continues to emerge, data in London, Ont., suggests that even though an increase in cases is expected, this year's respiratory season may not be as acute as previous ones. 

However, that depends on a number of factors, most importantly how many people get the latest vaccine booster dose, said Dr. Joanne Kearon, associate medical officer of health at the Middlesex-London Health Unit. 

"With the uptake of vaccines, we don't expect that this year will be as severe as last year, both in severity of symptoms or in the number of cases," she said. 

Despite the BA.2.86 variant appearing in multiple countries, no cases have been found in Canada yet. On Aug. 17, the World Health Organization deemed it a variant under monitoring.

Evidence found so far indicates that while it spreads more easily, it doesn't seem to cause severe disease, Kearon said, adding that the effectiveness of vaccines against it is still being tested.

Wastewater data in London suggests that although there has been an increase in positive samples in the city, it's not as high compared to previous waves, said Chris DeGroot, an assistant professor at Western University who tracks the data.

"We're sitting at around about half of what we had around this time last year," he said. "In our samples this week, we've noticed an uptick so we don't know if that's going to be sustained or if it could be the start of a fall wave." 

Numbers have been continuously declining since May but it's hard to predict how things will change in the coming weeks and months, DeGroot said.

"I would expect something similar to last fall if I had to guess, but it's hard to predict because we don't know which variants will be dominant," he added.

Annual COVID-19 boosters best defence, says doctor

This past week, MLHU has seen 19 reported cases which is a decrease from the week prior, and test positivity remains low across the province. But Kearon said those numbers don't paint the full picture due to changes in testing guidelines.

London Health Sciences Centre — the region's largest hospital — said it continues to monitor COVID-19 and remains prepared should there be an uptick in cases and hospital visits. 

"As COVID-19 continues to circulate within our community and region, the number of patients being hospitalized with this virus ebbs and flows, but we have not experienced a significant increase at this time," a spokesperson said in a statement.

According to Kearon, the best defence for kids heading back to school in September is getting boosted.

She anticipates people will have to get yearly COVID boosters, similar to the annual flu shots in order to maintain their immunity against the respiratory viruses.

"Immunity both from the vaccines and natural immunity from previous infections has been shown to decrease over time, so it will be based on the recommendations of what new vaccines are available to make sure people have the best protection they can," she said. 

"It'll be important to get both COVID-19 and influenza vaccines this fall and so one has to consider if you're high risk for one, you're very often high risk for both." 

Boosters will be available to people who have a higher risk of severe symptoms between late September and early October, and to the general public a month later, Kearon said.

High-risk individuals include people over the age of 65, immunocompromised individuals, and children under the age of five. Recommendations for the general public will be for everyone six months of age and older if it's been at least six months since their last dose.