End of Manitoba's controversial education reform bill could come in several ways: political scientist
Amendments to Bill 64, cutting it or proroguing the legislature are options for PC Party, says Chris Adams
Although the federal election campaign is almost a week old, the lawn signs from the major political parties have a long way to go in Manitoba to catch up to the sheer volume of placards denouncing Bill 64.
For months, yards across the province have been dotted with signs — part of campaigns by the Opposition NDP, the Manitoba Liberals and the Manitoba Teachers' Society — denouncing the Progressive Conservative government's proposed legislation to reform Manitoba's education system.
"There are so many lawn signs in so many colours with so many messages telling you how terrible Bill 64 is, I'm sure it's put some sign makers' children through college," quipped NDP Leader Wab Kinew.
Now, the controversial legislation — also decried by a marching band and protesters at the legislature — seems likely to die.
The question, though, is how.
The first true death toll for the bill sounded with Premier Brian Pallister's recent announcement he will resign as leader of the Progressive Conservative Party, but it struck louder this week when Tory leadership candidate Heather Stefanson promised she would kill the bill if elected.
"Bill 64 will be done," the Tuxedo MLA said in announcing her leadership bid on Wednesday.
Education Minister Cliff Cullen was among the PC caucus members at Stefanson's launch who cheered her announcement — a striking detail for political watcher Chris Adams.
A minister having "that very soft support for something you are supposed to be stick-handling through the assembly, I mean, that speaks volumes for a political scientist watching this thing," said Adams, an adjunct professor of political studies at the University of Manitoba.
Cullen had previously supported the bill, arguing opposition to it was fuelled by a "misinformation campaign" led by the NDP, the Manitoba School Boards Association and the leadership of the Manitoba Teachers' Society.
In July, however, he did leave the door open to amendments to the legislation.
Path to the death of a bill
Adams says the PC government has a few options: amend the bill, cut it from the order paper altogether, forge ahead and attempt its passage as written, or prorogue the legislature.
"Proroguing is sort of like pulling the plug, or an emergency solution to a problem," Adams said.
Proroguing would effectively kill legislation on the table — not just Bill 64, but any other bills the Tories had hoped to pass in the fall session.
Adams says the bill as presented is now so unpopular — even among PC members — it would likely be defeated and trigger a defeat of the government and an election.
That is not something Liberal leader Dougald Lamont anticipates happening. His party paid for a thousand of the lawn signs calling for the bill's demise.
"I think they're going to have to tuck the tail between their legs and find some way of pulling it," he told CBC News.
He thinks that's mostly likely, followed by prorogation.
"And then the third possibility is an amendment, which I think is the least likely."
The NDP's Kinew isn't fussed about how the bill goes down, as long as it's done.
"To me, how the bill gets killed isn't as important as let's just see it eliminated overall," Kinew said Friday.
When asked about the status of Bill 64, a spokesperson for the government told CBC News PC House leader Kelvin Goertzen will "address issues related to the fall session prior to the session commencing in October."
