NDP's Leila Dance hangs on to party's stronghold seat in Elmwood-Transcona byelection

Leila Dance has held on to the New Democratic Party's seat in the eastern Winnipeg riding of Elmwood-Transcona, defeating Conservative Colin Reynolds in a federal byelection that was called following the resignation of the area's longtime representative earlier this year.

Dance won the riding by a margin of 1,158 votes, coming out with 13,606 ballots — or 48.1 per cent of the vote — according to preliminary results from all polls posted by Elections Canada.

Voter turnout in Monday's byelection was just over 39 per cent.

The race was triggered by the resignation of Daniel Blaikie, the riding's longtime NDP member of Parliament, earlier this year. It saw Dance campaign to hold the seat for the New Democrats, which it has won in every vote since the riding's inception except in 2011, when the Conservatives won a majority government under Stephen Harper.

"I will fight for Elmwood-Transcona," Dance told cheering supporters at what became her victory celebration at Junction 59 Roadhouse late Monday night. "I promise to make you all so proud of me, and I will see you in Ottawa."

But the margin of victory for the party is narrower this time than in years past — a sign that while the NDP has pulled in enough votes to win again, the party's brand has taken a bit of a hit.

Dance, a small business advocate, bested Reynolds by about four percentage points — a fraction of what former MP Daniel Blaikie posted in the riding last time.

The Elmwood-Transcona seat was left vacant after Blaikie resigned in March to take a job with Manitoba Premier Wab Kinew's NDP government. Blaikie won three elections for the NDP and served more than eight years as MP.

WATCH | Leila Dance thanks voters, supporters:

Leila Dance claims victory in Elmwood-Transcona byelection

2 months ago

Duration 4:44

Leila Dance, the NDP candidate in Winnipeg's Elmwood-Transcona riding, addresses her supporters late Monday night. Dance held on to her party's seat in the byelection, defeating Conservative Colin Reynolds in a race called after the resignation of the area's longtime NDP representative earlier this year.

At Dance's byelection gathering Monday night, Blaikie said her victory shows she was speaking to issues that matter to working people in northeast Winnipeg.

"I think it's a testament to the fact that, you know, working-class voters pay attention," he said. 

"Saying some sweet words and not following up with action isn't going to woo voters. You have to actually show up when it counts."

'Not the result we were hoping for'

Reynolds, an electrician whose campaign aimed to unseat the NDP by drawing attention to the two-year confidence-and-supply deal between the New Democrats and the governing Liberal Party — which the NDP said it was ending earlier this month — conceded defeat in a speech to supporters Monday night.

"While this certainly was not the result we were hoping for, I'm proud of the work we did here," Reynolds told people gathered to watch the results come in at Royal George Hotel. "We were the underdog in this, and we made it a tight race."

The results of the byelection will also have implications for both the NDP and Conservatives in the lead-up to the next federal election, according to experts who spoke to CBC's Power & Politics host David Cochrane on Monday night.

Mélanie Richer, a former communications director for the NDP, said the win comes as a bit of a relief for some in the party.

"I know it seems like a hold, and it is obviously, but folks were really worried about that one — so the fact that we can say that [the NDP won] is really great," she said.

• Do you have questions about this byelection or what it could mean for the next federal election? Send an email to ask@cbc.ca.

Meanwhile, Fred DeLorey, a former national campaign manager for the Conservatives, said while Reynolds was defeated in the byelection, he did much better than the party typically does in the longtime NDP stronghold.

"Going up 15 per cent is something to be very proud of for the Conservatives. They've obviously worked very hard on their message — it's resonating," DeLorey said.

The Elmwood-Transcona byelection saw Liberal candidate Ian MacIntyre secure 1,360 votes in the riding, while the Green Party's Nicolas Geddert received 366 votes, People's Party of Canada candidate Sarah Couture got 349 and the Canadian Future Party's Zbig Strycharz had 132.

The Liberals have not finished higher than third place in Elmwood-Transcona since 1997.

Elmwood-Transcona is one of two Canadian ridings where a byelection was taking place Monday. A byelection was also held in LaSalle-Émard-Verdun, a Montreal riding most recently held by former Liberal cabinet minister David Lametti.

NDP's Leila Dance hangs on to party's stronghold seat in Elmwood-Transcona byelection

2 months ago

Duration 1:58

Leila Dance has held on to the New Democratic Party's seat in the eastern Winnipeg riding of Elmwood-Transcona, defeating Conservative Colin Reynolds in a federal byelection that was called following the resignation of the area's longtime representative earlier this year.