Despite recent rain, Manitoba still in moisture deficit

The recent wet weather across southern Manitoba may have people thinking we're out of the woods as far as drought is concerned, but we need to also look at long-term conditions. 

When looking at dry conditions — and, more specifically, soil moisture — we need to look back several months to determine what sort of moisture deficit we have. Before this month of May, the last time we had a month with above normal precipitation was October of 2019.

Remember the Thanksgiving weekend snowstorm that toppled trees? What followed that storm was a dry stretch for the rest of that calendar year.

November and December of 2019 were dry, with a moisture deficit of 27 millimetres. This data is from the Winnipeg airport but works well for comparison; the airport has been known to under-report winter precipitation. 

What followed was a very dry 2020. We received 305 millimetres of precipitation from both rain and melted snow. The annual normal is 515 millimetres based on a 30-year data set (1991-2020).

This graphic breaks down the moisture deficit in southern Manitoba since October 2019. As you can see, we have a lot of catching up to do. 

Even over these first four-and-a-half months of the year — up to May 18 — we have been starved for moisture. What we received in that period was less than 50 per cent of normal. 

The recent rainfall has helped some, but there's more work to be done by Mother Nature to get us back on track. Even with the 41mm that fell in Winnipeg Friday night and Saturday, we are barely over 60 per cent of our normal precipitation over the entire period.

Having said that, some areas of southern Manitoba did receive more than Winnipeg late last week, so the numbers would be slightly different — but most areas could still use more rain. 

For those who love sunny, hot, and dry weather, this probably isn't what you want to hear, but we will need a rather wet summer this year to get us back on track.