Manitoba PC leadership race data suggests Khan puts party in position to improve in Winnipeg, Brandon

Obby Khan campaigned to lead Manitoba Progressive Conservatives on the basis he'd improve the party's fortunes among urban voters.

The results of Manitoba's PC leadership race indicate the Fort Whyte MLA was indeed more popular among party members in Winnipeg and Brandon than Wally Daudrich, his sole competitor in the race.

Khan won the Official Opposition party's leadership contest on Saturday by securing more points under a weighted ballot system, even though Daudrich earned more actual votes.

The race was close, regardless of the metric.

Under the weighted system, which awarded points to each of Manitoba's 57 constituencies based on the number of votes cast by PC members in those areas, Khan racked up 2,198.8 points compared to Daudrich's 2,163.2.

Daudrich won the raw vote by 53 ballots, with 3,387 votes to Khan's 3,334.

The race was not close at all when you look at constituencies in Winnipeg and Brandon alone.

According to voting data posted on the party's website, Khan was by far the more popular candidate in Winnipeg. He received more votes than Daudrich in 25 out of 32 Winnipeg constituencies.

Khan beat Daudrich by the largest margins in suburban Winnipeg constituencies such as The Maples, Waverley and his home constituency of Fort Whyte.

The only corner of Winnipeg where Daudrich proved more popular was a seven-constituency crescent of the city's northeast quadrant.

If Winnipeg voters in general follow that pattern, the party could do better in Winnipeg with Khan as its leader than it would have with Daudrich in the next provincial election.

Right now, the NDP holds both Waverley and The Maples. Khan's seat is one of only two the PCs have in Winnipeg (Kathleen Cook's Roblin is the other).

That leaves tremendous room for a Khan-led Progressive Conservative Party to improve in Winnipeg, even though the prospect of clawing back enough seats to return to power next election is unlikely.

History suggests Wab Kinew's NDP government will earn a second term regardless of the party's performance. Manitobans tend to be forgiving toward new governments: The last one to suffer defeat after a single term was Sterling Lyon's Progressive Conservative government, which was in power from 1977 to 1981.

Daudrich more popular in rural areas

The PC leadership race data also shows Khan won both of the constituencies in Brandon, whose demographics are somewhat similar to those in Winnipeg.

While Brandon East generally prefers the NDP, Brian Pallister's Progressive Conservatives won both this riding and Brandon West in both the 2016 and 2019 provincial elections.

In non-urban Manitoba constituencies, Daudrich was the more popular candidate in the PC leadership race. He won 20 out of 23 constituencies located entirely outside Winnipeg and Brandon.

He earned his largest percentage of the vote in the rural constituencies of Dawson Trail, Turtle Mountain and La Verendrye, all solidly PC constituencies over the past decade.

In other words, Daudrich did best in areas that are unlikely to ever vote NDP. Khan did better where the PCs need to grow.

So on the basis of numbers alone, Khan presents the party with a better chance of whittling away at the NDP's seat count in the future.

The question is whether he can actually do so.

Khan said the first step in that task is rebuilding trust with voters, particularly in Winnipeg.

"We have some work to do as a party to rebuild that trust. We've got to rebuild that relationship," he said Wednesday in an interview.

Asked whether that rebuilding requires a more vociferous disavowal of the party's mean-spirited 2023 election campaign than Manitobans have heard from him before, Khan suggested that may be on the way.

"I have a lot more to say on a lot of things that have happened in the past with this party," he said, promising more specifics later.

Khan is vulnerable here on two main fronts. He did not offer full-throated support when interim PC leader Wayne Ewasko apologized for Heather Stefanson's refusal to search the Prairie Green landfill for the remains of murdered First Nations women.

He also did not fully distance himself from his own role in the 2023 provincial election, when he served as the face of his party's vague promise to bolster "parental rights."

In an interview in March, Khan said he was not aware the term may be seen as a transphobic dogwhistle when the campaign was underway.

"I was aware after the campaign, actually,  that some people would use that as a dog whistle. It was not my intent at all. I don't believe in that at all," Khan said on March 7.

The NDP revisited Khan's track record in an attack website that went online minutes after Khan won the PC leadership race. Premier Wab Kinew, however, has not spoken to CBC News about Khan since the PC leadership race concluded on Saturday.

Kinew and Khan will face each other as party leaders for the first time when the legislative session resumes on Monday — the first day Khan will have the chance to embark upon his stated mission of making his party more palatable in areas of the province with more pavement than prairie grass.