Oil and gas to remain Manitoba energy sources in short term, NDP government concedes

Manitoba will continue to rely on oil and natural gas until cleaner sources of energy become more abundant, according to a new provincial energy policy that acknowledges the disappearance of fossil fuels is not imminent.

Wab Kinew's NDP government is slated to publish a 17-page energy policy on Friday that will update the 19-page "energy roadmap" unveiled by the former Progressive Conservative government in 2023.

That roadmap, unveiled six weeks before Heather Stefanson's government was defeated by the NDP, called for the "integrated use of electricity and natural gas systems" while the province works to reduce carbon emissions.

The new energy policy is similar, even after Kinew set targets last October to wean Manitoba Hydro off natural gas by 2035 and make the province entirely carbon-neutral by 2050.

"While we expand and diversify our clean energy sources, we recognize that non-renewables, which currently make up 73 per cent of our energy use, will continue to play a role in our energy profile," the new policy states, according to a two-page excerpt provided to CBC News.

"Responsible stewardship of these resources is key to protecting our environment and our families as we move toward our net zero targets."

The excerpt says the plan includes "stronger oversight of the oil and gas sector with regular provincial inspections to ensure environmental safety and reliability."

The energy policy comes as Manitoba faces sharp demands to increase its electrical generating capacity.

Growing demand for electricity

When the PC government published its energy roadmap in 2023, Manitoba Hydro officials said the province needed to double or even triple its existing production capacity of 6,100 megawatts over the coming decades.

Hydro officials also warned last year the Crown corporation already does not have the capacity to connect new energy-intensive industrial users to its grid.

As well, former Manitoba Hydro CEO Jay Grewal issued a public warning early in 2024 that energy shortages for all users are possible within five years without an increase in electrical capacity.

In light of the growing demand for electricity, it's not surprising to see Manitoba concede it will continue to rely on fossil fuels in the near future, said Bruce Lourie, president of the Ivey Foundation, a non-profit organization that supports a transition to clean energy.

"It's not like a huge revelation, but at the same time, I don't think it's a huge walkback. I think most people that are following the electricity sector would probably say that's a pretty reasonable response," Lourie said in an interview from Algonquin Highlands, Ont.

Last November, Lourie called on Manitoba to develop a concrete plan to increase electricity production in order to achieve its decarbonization goals.

Quebec announced a plan last year that included specific targets for the construction of new transmission lines, wind farms and hydro-electric stations, complete with cost projections.

"The Quebec report was very impressive, and really the only and first in Canada that puts real numbers on paper in terms of quantities of new power, lengths of transmission lines, as well as the financing required to do it," Lourie said.

"Manitoba should be able to come up with something comparable."

The Kinew government has promised to keep Manitoba Hydro rates affordable while also whittling down the Crown corporation's $25-billion debt, along with spending billions to replace its aging infrastructure and expand generating capacity.

Quebec has acknowledged its plans to expand hydro capacity and maintain its existing infrastructure will cost $185 billion.