Fuel, fertilizer prices cause uncertainty for Manitoba farmers as seeding nears

Farmers in Manitoba are used to uncertainty. For many, while farming is a lifelong passion, they also recognize it's a business rife with risk. 

The severe drought conditions last year that stunted crop growth and led to winter feed shortages have been alleviated with this winter's average to above-average snowfall.

But farmers are once again starting this growing season with a lot of uncertainty.

Prices for fertilizer and fuel have skyrocketed due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, leading to drastically increased input prices for farmers in Manitoba. 

"Right now we're worried about the price of fuel," said Tom Johnson, who farms in the rural municipality of St. Laurent, in Manitoba's Interlake region.

"So far, everything's looking promising that we'll have a decent hay crop, but then if we're going to pay through the nose for fuel to get it off, who knows?" 

The rural municipality declared an agricultural state of disaster last summer. Cattle farmers were forced to sell off herds as hay crops didn't grow through the drought and dugouts, where cattle get water during the summer, ran dry. 

Johnson and his son, who farm together, toughed it out. They trucked hay in for the winter months at a cost of $150 per bale. Other farmers in his area, he said, paid up to $300 per bale. 

This summer, he's hopeful he'll get the hay crop he needs. 

"We're looking a lot better moisture-wise," said Johnson. "We got our old-fashioned winter, which I hoped and asked for, which we got blamed for by a lot of people. 

"But we sure needed the snow."

Supply issues affect fertilizer market

Robert Misko, chair of the Manitoba Crop Alliance, said prices for fertilizer have doubled in some cases. 

"I think there's a lot of farmers that are concerned that [if] they've even spoken for fertilizer … are they actually going to get it?" said Misko, whose organization represents many wheat, barley, corn, flax, winter cereal and sunflower growers in the province.

Russian nitrogen was a big factor in the world fertilizer market, says Misko, who farms near Roblin, close to the Manitoba-Saskatchewan border.

Sanctions against Russian fertilizer exports, along with domestic supply chain issues, have created an unstable market. 

"There's going to be a shortfall," he said.

"Prices have been going up since basically last summer. They've never stopped. So there's a definite concern how that's going to affect farmers going forward, especially in a year when it looks like every every bushel produced is going to be needed to feed the world."

Fertilizer costs will be significantly higher this season than last, he says.

"If you were doing an early buy last August, you're probably well over double that price for nitrogen [now]," he said. "It'll be 70 per cent higher for phosphate, probably double for potash and sulfur. It's pretty big increases."

Hope for bumper crop after 2021 disaster 

Johnson said he doesn't use a lot of fertilizer on his farm. His extra costs will be all fuel-related. 

Even with a normal crop this year, producers would "think it would be a bumper crop, after the last few years we had," said Johnson.

"That's what we're hoping for — that we get enough grass for the cows, they can go pasture and we get enough hay to feed them through next winter and hopefully go from there."

That is, of course, if "the price of fuel doesn't go crazy," he said.

He and Misko share that optimism, with spring seeding right around the corner.

"Farmers are typically always optimistic, but it's a risky business," Misko said.

"I mean, you put everything on the table upfront. You've got to buy all your inputs. You've got to pay for your seed. You've got to get your chemical, you've got to get everything else done," he said.

"[But] we don't have any guarantee how it's going to come off."

While there have been tough years, Johnson said it's a lifestyle he's used to, and he doesn't plan to quit anytime soon. 

"I was born and raised on the farm and I've been here right through," he said. "My grandfather started it in 1928, so in 2028, it will be 100 years. 

"We're hoping to make that if we can."