'Surprisingly large minority' of Manitobans support Prairie separatism, poll suggests

Sentiments of Prairie separatism exist in parts of Manitoba, a new poll suggests, with supporters more likely to be federal and provincial Conservative voters who live in rural areas.

A Probe Research poll of Manitoba voter intentions, conducted on behalf of the Winnipeg Free Press between May 28 and June 10, suggested a majority of Manitobans — seven in 10 — would vote to stay in Canada rather than separate.

That includes six in 10 respondents who would vote for Manitoba to definitely stay part of Canada.

"I know it's a majority, but that's a weak majority, especially after this moment that we've had where we've banded together and felt proud of our country," said Mary Agnes Welch, a partner with Probe Research.

"The thing I worry about is that sentiment has now dissipated. It didn't have any staying power, and really our sense of attachment to our country is, there's sort of an undercurrent of it being pretty weak."

A "surprisingly large minority" of more than one in five Manitobans would vote for the province to leave Canada, according to Probe Research.

Those who supported Manitoba separatism in the poll are concentrated in rural parts of the province, and are among right-of-centre voters, Probe Research says. It found 56 per cent of federal Conservative voters, and 52 per cent of provincial Progressive Conservative voters, would support separatism.

"It's a much bigger number than I think we were expecting," said Welch.

"This is emblematic of how shut out of mainstream discourse that cohort of folks feel."

Support for western separatism appears to be much stronger in Alberta and Saskatchewan than in Manitoba, Welch said, but that doesn't leave the keystone province out of the woods.

"It's one thing for Alberta to feel this way, [but] Manitoba is the centre," she said. "We are so centrist. We have every opinion in Canada here."

Talks of the western provinces separating from Canada grew following the victory of the Liberals and Mark Carney in April. Alberta premier Danielle Smith introduced legislation to make it easier to trigger a referendum. 

Meanwhile, Donald Trump and his calls to make Canada the 51st state sparked discussion across the country about the nation's need for independence.

Darwin Driedger, who lives in McGregor, Man., says he would vote to leave Canada and join with other western provinces. 

"Western Canada is majority blue collar — that is what drives our economy: oil, gas, farming, right? And eastern Canada takes advantage of that," he told CBC News on Monday.

But Joelle Wytinck, who's from Cypress River, Man., says she doesn't see a need to separate.

"I think we need to stick together, and strength is in numbers," she said.

Seven per cent of those who responded to the poll were undecided.

The Probe sample of 1,000 Manitoba adults has an error margin of 3.1 per cent and a reliability of 95 per cent.

Separatist talk makes Canada weaker: poll respondents

The poll also suggests Manitobans' sense of pride in Canada is strong but declining. Sixty per cent said they felt more proud to be Canadian than they did last year — a decrease from March, when 77 per cent said they were more proud.

A vast majority of poll respondents agree that talk about the province separating from Canada makes the country weaker, but the poll found a large number of respondents agree that there are valid grievances against the federal government.

The poll also found more than eight in 10 respondents think that separatism discussions coming from Alberta make Canada weaker in the face of U.S. tariffs and President Donald Trump's desire to make the country the 51st state.

While Alberta's separatism movement is a widely-shared concern among those who responded to the poll, it found that over six in 10 respondents did not take those discussions seriously.

Meanwhile, more than six in 10 poll respondents agreed that people in western Canada have a legitimate reason to be angry with the federal government.

"Manitobans are split, however, on whether having a federal Liberal government is bad for western Canada, with nearly one-half agreeing with this sentiment and slightly more than one-half disagreeing," the Probe report said.

Welch says about two-thirds of Manitobans who responded to the poll think that western Canada "gets the shaft" from Ottawa.

"Even those who don't want to separate think that there's this kind of imbalance when it comes to being a western Canadian," she said.

"So I think that's part of it, I think anger, and kind of frustration, with the Carney government."

Poll suggests pockets of Prairie separatism in Manitoba

9 hours ago

Duration 2:04

A poll by Probe Research suggests the majority of Manitobans would vote to stay in Canada if there was a referendum, but more than one in five responded they would vote to separate.