Manitoba Tories spent a lot of political capital in 2017. Will they reap the rewards in 2018?
Probe poll showing 'levelling out' of support could be good news for Pallister, says Chris Adams
He may have finished the year with his arm in a sling and call-outs over what some say was a sexist gaffe, but a recent poll shows Premier Brian Pallister's government has halted its year-long slide in support.
The Tories spent much of 2017 delivering the first parts of massive changes to health-care delivery in Manitoba and appeared to pick a fight with the federal government on a monthly basis.
So far the Trudeau Liberals have yet to entirely shut the funding door on Manitoba in response to Pallister's noisy opposition to everything from pot tax revenue to carbon tax schemes.
And so far, consolidating emergency departments and other health services in Winnipeg continues to be a precarious political ride.
2018 could see more of the same, or Pallister's poll position could sink further as the next rounds of health changes and other reforms and initiatives take hold.
The most recent Probe Research poll done for the Winnipeg Free Press shows 40 per cent of those surveyed support the PCs.
If the poll snapshot marks an uptick for the PC government, it also should give pause to the NDP, who are in a near dead heat with the Liberals for second spot at approximately 25 per cent of the 1,000 people surveyed.
Probe's margin of error for the poll says the results are within ± 3.1 percentage points of what they would have been if the entire adult population of Manitoba had been surveyed.
Political scientist and author Chris Adams worked at Probe before taking the position of rector at St. Paul's College at the University of Manitoba.
Pallister "has spent a lot of political capital over the past year and I think the strategy of Pallister and his party is to spend that political capital right now, early in the election cycle, and reap the rewards two years from now," Adams said.
Two caveats, though.
First, the Tories are slipping into traditional patterns that made them an opposition party and not a governing one, Adams says. The PC brand has improved slightly in rural Manitoba, where its support has always been strong, and slipped in vote-rich Winnipeg.
"This poll shows the historical vulnerability of the Progressive Conservatives. They are higher among men than women in Manitoba and the second is their numbers in Winnipeg are not where they'd like them to be," Adams said.
Second, 2018 brings a fresh round of health care changes, including more closures and consolidations. Doing major reforms was an operational and logistical necessity within the health system, but tactically it means prolonging the political exposure to the Tories.
Add to this a completely as-yet undefined climate change package (except for placing a carbon tax at a maximum of $25 per tonne), promised reforms to Child and Family Services and ongoing efforts to wrestle the deficit to zero.
Adams warns that highly sought-after middle-class votes come from people who pay close attention to health care delivery.
And those same voters, he says, also keep close tabs on education changes.
The Pallister government has loosened control on tuition fees at post-secondary schools (which will push up fees well past inflation) and is making noises about other reforms.
"We might want to wait for the other shoe to drop to see if education is the next major one [up] for reform," Adams says.
The Probe poll also showed an almost dead heat between the Opposition NDP and the Liberals at approximately 25 per cent each.
Both parties have strong showings in the city of Winnipeg and score better among women than the governing PCs.
The tall man at the top
Premier Brian Pallister's farewell to 2017 was unusual on a number of counts.
Battered from his accident on a New Mexico hike, his arm hanging in a sling, his staff decided to eschew the traditional one-on-one year-end interviews with media outlets — a chance for political reporters to sit down privately with the person at the top and ask independent and wide-ranging questions — in favour of a full-court press with the press at his office at the Legislature.
But that wasn't the end of it.
The premier would ultimately do an exclusive interview with one local TV station. His communications director, Chisolm Pothier, later explained that decision was made because the outlet had the largest audience in the market.
While other news outlets took exception, outside of the political bubble Pallister's year-end review most likely played second fiddle to Manitobans reflecting on their own 2017s.
It is obvious Brian Pallister's 11-hour ordeal in New Mexico was a physically punishing incident that could have been worse if he wasn't in good shape and a tremendous competitor.
It's also clear recovery hasn't been easy and there will be few critics this time as he recuperates at his home in Costa Rica.
The premier's condition was exacerbated by a fall at home; his return to health is hampered by the boundless energy he displays for work.
His staff somehow has to balance his return to duty with the tremendous vacuum caused by the absence of someone who keeps the decision-making reins pulled so close.
Pallister could easily borrow from a slogan made famous by U.S. President Harry Truman: "the buck stops here."
How power is concentrated in a government is perhaps not as crucial as the policy decisions it makes, but is telling and informative.
The made-in-Manitoba climate change plan, trimming the deficit, the legalization of marijuana, coping with Manitoba Hydro's disastrous financial state — all major files in 2017 — these (and many others) all have Brian Pallister's fingerprints over them.
There is growing talk among some circles inside and out of the PC party about how the decision-making process is concentrated so tightly in the premier's hands and the difficulty, for some, of canvasing his opinion and offering alternatives.
During Pallister's last press conference he was asked if his government was still committed to lowering the PST by one per cent before the end of his mandate — regardless of whether he had balanced the province's books and regardless if he would have to borrow money to do it?
His answer (an emphatic yes) was delivered swiftly and with both some anger and frustration.
That temper can be useful in moving intractable government mountains.
Or it can be an Achilles heel, determining the success or failure of big files like health care or climate change.
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