PC government dodges bullet from the north at end of session

If Premier Brian Pallister was prone to basketball metaphors, he might have said getting the Tolko paper mill deal signed was a three-point shot from way back of the net.

Alas, his government is in the early stages of the first quarter and there are plenty of chances to get fouled. Piles of problem files litter the desks of his senior team.

But it would be hard to blame Brian Pallister if he had a spring in his step as he walked with the Lieutenant Governor Janice Filmon to the house on the last day of the session. The Tolko problem loomed like a stormy northern sky over his government since August and the horizon just got brighter.

The paper mill problem really was a big one. Tolko's fortunes affect more than The Pas, and the neighbouring Opaskwayak Cree Nation — small communities around the region depend on the mill as well. 

Just what the government threw in to sweeten the deal isn't clear yet (the workers went all-in with a wage cut and pension concessions and the town offered tax relief.) Pallister stated direct subsidies were not given to the American firm buying the mill. That, Pallister says, is in keeping with his long-standing pledge not to hand provincial cash for short term results.

Steady as she goes?

His government got nine bills through in a modest legislative season. The most contentious being Bill 7. The labour law requires secret ballots during union certification and it marked a new era of tense relations between labour and the Manitoba government. Now wrap Bill 7 in with the government's involvement in the University of Manitoba strike and you have a cloak over labour-government relations that could get more ill-fitting and uncomfortable with each new wage contract.

Nearly seven months have passed since the change in government and if one adds the blackout restrictions in the lead-up to last spring's election there has been an even longer period of limbo for the Manitoba civil service. The bureaucracy-wide reviews going on now may be needed and timely, but there are many decisions that have been left hanging for months.

It's hard to assess the cost of the government looking at its own belly button, but there are contracts waiting, designs finished and projects sitting on the bubble.

Pallister is promising a concise throne speech on Nov 21. If the Premier follows the playbook so far, he will continue on a very incremental path toward his goals of fiscal sobriety, improved services and lower taxes. 

It's a strategic decision, to be sure. And in some respects in contrast to conventional political thinking about using the first part of the mandate to go fast and hard and ease off toward an election.

The NDP opposition, still struggling to find their feet on an unfamiliar side of the house, tend to score political points when pushing for specific answers about the government's programs.

The Liberals, with new interim leader Judy Klassen, are also searching for their overall tone, but when Klassen voices the dire conditions of her northern constituency, most members on all sides look over during question period with genuine concern.

Files that might bite

More immediately, and what will likely threaten the PC government more than the deferral of some decisions, are the dangers in the real world. The Tolko mill problem may be solved, but OmniTrax and the Port of Churchill are still major stories to unfold.

Thousands more employees, in health and education, for example, will be bargaining for new contracts.

Who knows what land mines these government reviews might find?  

The giant file that is healthcare. 

Then there is Hydro

The Premier and his Minister of Crown Services, Ron Schuler, have sprinkled the narrative about Manitoba Hydro with hyperbole - Schuler consistently states the debt of Hydro is $25 billion, as if that is fact today, when in reality that number is a prediction for years from now. Tories blame the NDP for directing ill-conceived projects that weren't needed and cost too much and are not shy about using the words"bankrupt" and "bailout" when talking about the public utility. 

Hydro board chair Sandy Riley had a worried look on his face earlier this year when he brought up the possibility of a drought year. Clearly the veteran businessman didn't like that potential risk. And if it does dry up, it will be the Pallister government's mess to fix.

A possible equity injection into Hydro, mentioned by Riley last month, would make the cash for long-waiting projects such as the Assiniboine Park Conservancy or the Winnipeg Art Gallery's Inuit Art Centre look like chump change. 

So this session passes with the PCs ticking off a few more election promises, some unseemly conduct in the house (male NDP members yelling 'shame' at female Tory MLA's and a false PC accusation someone yelled 'take your pants off' to a minister) and a victory on the Tolko file.

Two premiers' takes on Trump

Earlier this week former ambassador to the US and former Manitoba NDP Premier Gary Doer shared his thoughts with a packed Chamber of Commerce audience on the American election and President-elect Donald Trump 

He posited Trump will likely be better than expected and that he might cut through the gridlock in Washington. Doer added we should be beefing up our military to meet the expectations of The Donald. 

What Doer wouldn't do is weigh in on what troubled many — the accusations of sexism and racism that followed Trump everywhere. After a speech and a question and answer session, Doer never addressed the darker side of the Trump campaign.  CBC News asked him afterward to comment.

"I'm not getting into that. The American people have voted so..." said Doer. "I have an opinion... and what I would say and what I wouldn't say."

Contrast this with the current Progressive Conservative Premier's reaction to Trump's rhetoric.

"This one takes the cake. I didn't particularly like it. I don't think Manitobans subscribe to those kinds of politics," Pallister said.

End of session indeed.