Expect hotter-than-usual weather this summer as Manitoba battles wildfire season, experts say

Weather experts say Manitoba is expected to see above-normal temperatures this summer, which could increase the risk of wildfire as the province continues to grapple with out-of-control blazes across the region.

"There is a warmer than normal trend expected in the forecast for Manitoba for the summer season. And this is combined with a possibility for drier conditions as well — two elements essentially that are not favourable," said Jennifer Smith, the national warning preparedness meteorologist with the Meteorological Service of Canada at Environment and Climate Change Canada.

Temperatures will be about a degree or two above normal across the country through August, although the risk of wildfires remains highest in central and western provinces and territories, modelling by Environment and Climate Change Canada suggests.

Alex Crawford, an assistant professor in the department of environment and geography at the University of Manitoba, said forecasts show the confidence on those above-normal temperatures, while high across the province, is especially high in northern Manitoba.

But other elements of the summer forecast that could affect wildfire risk are generally harder to predict accurately.

For example, Crawford said "we really can't say anything confidently about" precipitation this summer, while predicting the amount of fires that start from lightning from thunderstorms is "a fool's errand."

Another factor Crawford said could be worthwhile trying to predict is wind, which Environment and Climate Change Canada doesn't present in its seasonal forecasts.

"Maybe in the future they will start doing that," he said. "It's totally feasible. Are we there yet? No. The fact that our precipitation forecasts seasonally are so bad is a good indication that we still have a lot of work to do."

Smith said although the federal agency's forecasts don't give detail on things like wind and lightning, it's something to be mindful of.

"Summer is storm season — that's when you do get all of the lightning activity," she said.

Manitoba has recently had some rain in certain parts of the province, but Natural Resources and Indigenous Futures Minister Ian Bushie warned Thursday the province likely isn't out of the woods yet when it comes to wildfire season.

"Actually, I would almost hazard to say we're not even in the height of our wildfire season yet. So as we go on, I'm encouraging Manitobans to be very fire smart and vigilant, as we talk about human starts," Bushie said at a news conference. 

As of Friday, provincial wildfire data showed there were 21 fires burning across Manitoba, with seven out of control. The total number of fires to date was 117, with nine of them starting from natural causes, 103 being caused by people and five under investigation.

The update comes in a Canadian wildfire season shaping up to be the second-worst on record, federal officials said Thursday.

"We are expecting a hot and dry summer, and definitely leading to a forecast of increased fire danger conditions for much of western and northern Canada," Michael Norton, director general of the Northern Forestry Centre with Natural Resources Canada, said during a government technical briefing in Ottawa.

Wildfires have scorched 3.7 million hectares across the country so far — six times the area of Prince Edward Island. The blazes have consumed about 800,000 hectares on average annually since 2014. About 76 per cent of the total area burned in Canada is in Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba.

Norton said while the start of wildfire season was "relatively normal" in early spring, the forest fire situation rapidly worsened over the past few weeks — driven by higher-than-average temperatures, especially across the west, with low accumulated precipitation on top of already dry conditions.

Wildfires in Manitoba have forced thousands of people out of their homes this season, although it was announced earlier this week that some would slowly be allowed to return to their communities starting this weekend.

Despite that progress, the province on Friday was deemed to be at a high fire danger level, with the potential for new blazes due to lightning and human cases continuing, the government said in a news release.