Winnipeg just had its 3rd warmest February in 150 years, but keep your shovel out, climatologist says
'You can't write the obituary on winter quite yet': Environment Canada climatologist
Winnipeg has experienced its third-warmest February in the last 150 years, but one climatologist says not to count winter out just yet.
This has been an unusual winter across the country, said David Phillips, senior climatologist at Environment and Climate Change Canada.
Winnipeg's weather records go back 150 years, and this February would have been the second-warmest on record if not for the leap year and the last few days of cold weather, he said.
The average temperature in Winnipeg this February was –6.3 C, Phillips said. Winnipeg's warmest February was in 1998, which had an average temperature of –4.6 C, and 1878 was the second warmest, with an average temperature of –5.1 C.
"In the last 25 years, nothing comes close to the kind of February we had," Phillips told CBC News on Thursday.
"No matter which way you look at it, it was spectacularly mild, particularly in February, but it was the pattern that we had seen established for the entire winter."
While there would typically be 13 days below –20 C in February, Winnipeg "had three of those suckers" in 2024, Phillips said.
Winnipeg has experienced consistent and relentless warmth this winter, he said.
Climate change and the global weather pattern El Niño — which returned for the first time in seven years last year, earlier and stronger than usual — are two main factors at play, but their connection is still largely unknown, he said.
"I think what climate change does, it kind of takes the ordinary El Niño and ramps it up."
Climate change remains lingering in the background, with its effects generally occurring more slowly and altering trends over a longer period, he said.
"What we're seeing [this year] is not an outlier. The trend is definitely, from year-after-year, winter-after-winter, that winter is not what it used to be. That is what climate change is, not this oddity, not this one year that stands out."
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Winnipeg's 13 days above freezing this month were also abnormal, straying from the normal five, although sometimes there may be none, he said.
It's still a dramatic shift compared to last year, when Winnipeg didn't have a single day above freezing in March — something that has never been recorded before.
However, Phillips advises Winnipeggers not to get too comfortable just yet.
"My sense is that I wouldn't put away the snow shovel — you can't write the obituary on winter quite yet, when we're only at the beginning of March."
One of the good things about the winter is that it could mean a lower flood risk, but the lack of precipitation could be concerning for people like forest firefighters, backyard gardeners, ranchers and farmers, he said.
"It doesn't matter what crop you're growing, you need that precipitation."
Phillips isn't worried about the moisture deficit just yet, because "there's still a lot of time" for nature to compensate.
Winnipeg's tame winter has also been irksome for skiers, ice fishers and skaters, Phillips said.
Canada is the snowiest and second-coldest nation in the world, meaning "winter is who we are."
"The weather just didn't co-operate, and I think Winnipeggers … deal with winter by embracing it."
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With files from Riley Laychuk