Wildfires put Manitoba GDP at risk more than any other province, Statistics Canada suggests

Manitoba's economy is the most at risk of all the provinces from the effects of wildfires burning across the country this year, a new report from Statistics Canada estimates.

The report uses new experimental estimates of gross domestic product by square kilometre to measure economic activity "at risk of being affected, but not necessarily being impacted, in communities that face mass evacuations" because of fires, the government agency said Wednesday.

By the new measures, Manitoba had the largest percentage of GDP at risk among the provinces as of mid-June, with wildfire-affected areas — that Statistics Canada says roughly 21,000 people were forced out of, although the province has said there were likely more than 22,000 evacuees — accounting for roughly 2.4 per cent of the province's total GDP. 

The same estimates suggest recent wildfires across Canada have either spread to or caused evacuations in regions representing roughly 0.125 per cent of the national GDP.

While the fires burning across the country pose limited economic risk at the provincial level, they "pose significant disruption to the affected economic regions and local communities," Statistics Canada said. 

"In north Manitoba, where some of the largest fires are concentrated, economic activity in wildfire-affected areas amounts to over one-quarter (26.3%) of the region's GDP," the report said.

"Similarly, almost one-quarter (24.4%) of economic activity within northern Saskatchewan is also at risk due to the wildfires within the area."

Saskatchewan is estimated to have the second-highest percentage of its GDP at risk at 0.4 per cent, followed by Alberta at 0.2 per cent. 

While sites of economic activity in British Columbia, New Brunswick, Ontario, Newfoundland and Labrador and Quebec were also in areas affected by wildfires, less than 0.1 per cent of the total GDP was at risk in those provinces, Statistics Canada said. 

As of June 18, there were 2,061 wildfires in Canada since the beginning of this year, covering an area of 3.88 million hectares — more than quadruple the 10-year average of 930,000 hectares, the agency said.

Other Statistics Canada research released Wednesday says the 2023 wildfire season was the largest ever recorded by land area affected, and the 2024 season was the second-largest in two decades. 

"Although past wildfires have affected large areas of land across the country, their potential effects on overall GDP are relatively limited at the national or provincial level," the report said. 

"However, for the economic regions and communities affected, these impacts are potentially devastating locally, particularly for those that experience extended evacuation periods."