NHL analysts, stats models and gaming sites give Stars edge in 2nd-round series vs. Jets

Hockey analysts, statistical models and oddsmakers are predicting a close second-round Stanley Cup playoff series between the Winnipeg Jets and Dallas Stars — with a general consensus giving Dallas the edge.

The best-of-seven Central Division series between Winnipeg and Dallas opens at Canada Life Centre on Wednesday night, pitting the Jets, who finished first in the NHL during the regular season, against the fifth-overall Stars.

Winnipeg won three out of four regular-season meetings between the two teams, outscoring Dallas 13-5.

Dallas, however, improved before the NHL trade deadline with the acquisition of forward Mikko Rantanen, who scored a hat trick in the Stars' come-from-behind victory in the seventh and deciding game of their first-round series against the Colorado Avalanche.

Prior to Tuesday's playoff games, Rantanen was tied for the NHL postseason scoring lead with Winnipeg's Kyle Connor and William Nylander of the Toronto Maple Leafs. All three had 12 playoff points as of Tuesday. 

Dallas forward Jason Robertson, a scoring threat who missed the first round against Colorado with a knee injury, is also close to returning, Stars coach Peter DeBoer told reporters Wednesday. Robertson could be in the Dallas lineup for the Stars' first game against the Jets, DeBoer said.

Injured Stars defenceman Miro Heiskanen is also expected to return during this series.

Similarly, Winnipeg Jets forward Mark Scheifele and defenceman Josh Morrissey — both of whom were injured during the Jets' first-round series against the St. Louis Blues — will be game-time decisions on Wednesday, Jets coach Scott Arniel told reporters. 

The other major factor affecting the series will be the play of Jets goalie Connor Hellebuyck, who followed up another superlative regular season — he's nominated for both the Vezina Trophy for best goalie and the Hart for most valuable player — with a subpar opening-round series against St. Louis.

Hellebuyck allowed 3.85 goals per game against the Blues and had an .830 save percentage in the first round, giving him the second-worst statistics among goalies this postseason.

A statistical analysis by The Athletic, which functions as the sports section for the New York Times, gives Dallas a 51 per cent chance of winning the series.

In a survey of staff who cover the NHL for the same media outlet, 92 per cent predicted the Stars would beat the Jets, mainly because Dallas dispatched Colorado without Robertson and Heiskanen in the lineup — and because of Hellebuyck's poor performance against St. Louis.

NHL probability tracker Moneypuck.com, which also employs statistical analysis, gives Winnipeg a 51.9 per cent chance of winning the series against Dallas.

Online betting sites favour the Stars. Dallas was favoured to win with an implied probability of 54.5 per cent on Tuesday, according to the online gaming aggregator Odds Shark.