In Winnipeg West, familiarity breeds contest
Third consecutive campaign featuring Conservative MP Morantz and former Liberal MP Eyolfson
On a residential street in Winnipeg's Westwood neighbourhood, Earl Klassen is happy to receive an announced visit from Conservative candidate Marty Morantz.
"You had my vote last time and you'll have it again," Klassen told the twice-elected MP, who is seeking a third victory in a riding now known as Winnipeg West.
Klassen, a retiree, said the Liberal Party of Canada has been "giving things away too much" and believes a Conservative government would be more practical.
"They are a little bit more realistic about how things are going. They're more in tune with the people, I think," Klassen said while standing in his doorway, adding he likes Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre for his straight talk.
The federal election is not expected to be a cakewalk for the Conservatives, who trail the Liberals in most polls. Even an incumbent like Morantz, a former city councillor, faces a challenge in Winnipeg West.
After defeating former Liberal MP Doug Eyolfson in 2019 by a comfortable 2,417-vote margin in the former Charleswood-St. James-Assinboia-Headingley riding, Morantz only squeaked by the emergency room physician by 460 votes in a 2021 rematch.
Now, with Liberal fortunes in Winnipeg buoyed by anti-U.S. sentiment — and more of Winnipeg placed in Morantz's riding due to boundary realignment — Winnipeg West now appears to be the most difficult seat for the Conservatives to hold in Manitoba.
Polling analyst Philippe Fournier's 338Canada.com lists Winnipeg West a likely Liberal seat, if the election was held on Monday.
Knocking on doors
To Morantz, who has not forgotten his narrow 2021 election victory, the horse race is of no concern.
"I've been up in the polls, I've been down in the polls," the Conservative candidate said late last week in an interview in his campaign office, which is nestled between an insurance retailer and a cannabis store.
Morantz said when he knocks on doors, all he hears about is people struggling with their money.
"When I talk to seniors, they're concerned about affording their lives. When I talk to young people, they're concerned about affording their lives. It wasn't like that in 2015, when houses were half the price," he said.
While the Conservative Party is running on affordability, some voters have other concerns.
A few houses down from Earl Klassen in Westwood, Jenna Rappai said she's more concerned about Donald Trump's aggressive stance toward Canada and plans to vote Liberal even though she's voted Green and NDP in the past.
Liberal Leader Mark Carney, she said, is better positioned to contend with Trump.
"Even if you are a fiscal conservative, you could still appreciate where he comes from, looking at the economy and our government," said Rappai, leaning on her fence.
"I've been really happy with how he's stood up to what we're seeing happening now in the United States."
Sovereignty a key issue
Eyolfson said the message he hears most often at the doorstep is a fear of losing sovereignty to the United States.
"Not a lot of people think President Trump is joking about that and they're afraid," Eyolfson said outside a Charleswood assisted living residence, where he had been speaking to seniors.
"People are making a very uncomfortable association between Mr. Poilievre and President Trump and they're quite worried about that."
The Morantz and Eyolfson campaigns have different strengths in this campaign. For Morantz, it's a ground game bolstered by a pair of very experienced political organizers, Michael Kowalson and Tannis Drysdale. For Eyolfson, it's popular support of the Liberals within Winnipeg, provided that support holds over the three remaining weeks of this election.
Poll-by-poll results during the previous three elections suggest the race for Winnipeg West will be decided in densely populated areas of Charleswood and St. James, given that the rural areas of the riding lean more conservative.
Morantz and Eyolfson also face other competitors in Winnipeg West. Elections Canada has confirmed Dennis Bayomi as the Green candidate for the riding, while the NDP has nominated Avery Selby-Lyons, the daughter of former Manitoba NDP cabinet minister Erin Selby, and Levi Anger is running for the People's Party.
Neither Selby-Lyons nor Anger were confirmed as candidates by Elections Canada as of Monday. The ballot for Winnipeg West and all other Canadian ridings will be set on Tuesday.
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