CAQ looks to flip script on Quebec Liberals, boot them out of Laval

As François Legault made his way around the room at a pizza restaurant in Laval, smiling and shaking hands, he stopped and delivered a message to four men eating lunch at a table.

"It's about time for a change in Laval," said the leader of the Coalition Avenir Québec during the campaign event in the city's Mille-Îles riding on Monday. "We have to change the colours."

On its way to what it hopes will be a resounding majority victory for a second mandate, the CAQ is looking to flip the province's third largest city from Liberal red to CAQ blue.

In 2018, the Quebec Liberal Party (PLQ)  won five out of six seats in Laval, with only one seat going to the CAQ.

This year, however, nearly all of the candidates who won under the Liberal banner four years ago are gone. That includes Francine Charbonneau, who has represented the Mille-Îles riding since 2008. 

The CAQ hopes Julie Séide, a longtime party member, can break through in that riding.

"This year, I am convinced that it's the right one. It's the right year for Julie, and she's coming to Quebec City," Legault told the small crowd at the restaurant while standing next to Séide, who finished a distant second to a Liberal in the Bourassa-Sauvé riding in the northern part of Montreal in 2018.

In addition to Charbonneau, outgoing Liberal MNAs Jean Rousselle and Monique Sauvé have also quit politics. The same goes for Guy Ouellette, who represented the Chomedey riding and was booted out of caucus shortly after the 2018 election.

In most of the five Laval ridings the Liberals won in the last election, the CAQ finished second — and not by much.

"Those ridings in 2018 were won by very close margins," said Philippe J. Fournier, a pundit and poll analyst behind the 338Canada poll aggregator.

"If you apply the current polling, especially among francophones, unless there's a micro-local target thing that we missed in the polling, the Liberals will be swept out of Laval except Chomedey."

'We feel comfortable in this situation': Liberal candidate

Saul Polo, who was twice elected in the Laval-des-Rapides riding, isn't fazed by what the pundits say. 

"In the past two general elections, all the odds were always against myself and this time it's no different," Polo said during a campaign event in Laval last Sunday.

 "We feel comfortable in this situation."

Earlier in the campaign, Quebec Liberal Leader Dominique Anglade said the party was playing offence, not defence, when it came to the ridings in Laval.

"It's about more than preserving seats in Laval, it's about getting Sainte-Rose," Anglade said referring to the lone riding the CAQ managed to win last time.

The mayor of Laval, Stéphane Boyer, has noticed the increased focus on his city from party leaders, and he's all for it, believing it could lead to more commitments from future governments.

"I'm happy there's a tough battle in Laval," he said. "Historically, in Laval, there's been a lot of under-investment in different fields, whether it's culture, transit or others."

CAQ also eyeing seats in Montreal

Despite the CAQ's dominant election victory in 2018, it has yet to make a major dent in Montreal.

Going into this election campaign, the party only held two ridings in the city: Camille-Laurin (formerly known as Bourget) and Pointe-aux-Trembles — both on the east end of the island. 

That could change come Oct. 3, according to Fournier. He says the east end riding of Anjou–Louis-Riel and the Maurice-Richard riding, which includes part of the city's Ahuntsic neighbourhood are in play. 

In 2018, as in Laval, both those ridings elected Liberal MNAs who are not running this time around.

"Basically, you look at the data of francophones per riding and everywhere you have over 60 per cent francophones, the Liberals are in trouble," said Fournier.

Jonathan Marleau, the Liberal candidate for Maurice-Richard, said he believes the party's door-to-door efforts are paying off and he brushed off talk of a CAQ takeover. 

He also said Legault's controversial comments on immigration aren't going over well with voters in and around Montreal.

"In Ahuntsic, people of course come from all, very diverse backgrounds," Marleau said. "When they talk to me they say that's something they're not very comfortable with. Because they want a leader to say that all Quebecers matter."

CAQ progress in and around Montreal, however, including in Laval, would deal a crushing blow to the Liberals who suffered historic losses during the last provincial election, dropping from 68 seats to just 31.