Why this new riding in eastern Quebec could see political lines blur
Uncertainty for Bloc Québécois as residents weigh traditional loyalties
There's a brisk wind off the water on the dock in Trois-Pistoles, Que., and it carries with it the scent of the seaweed that covers the shoreline rocks nearby.
Claudine Michaud and her dog Stella are taking their daily stroll. When asked about the federal election campaign, Michaud heaves a big sigh and shakes her head.
"It's complicated and it's hard to choose, because the promises are pretty much all the same thing."
Michaud is a Bloc Québécois loyalist. But she's been feeling the pinch of rising prices in the Bas-Saint-Laurent region of Quebec.
"I worked my whole life. I worked hard. I have a pension but it's minimal. I have to scrape to get by."
Michaud says there's no question about whether she'll vote. Her only doubt is who she'll vote for.
Maxime Blanchette-Joncas introduces himself as the Bloc Québécois candidate in the riding of Rimouski-Neigette-Témiscouata-Les Basques.
That's the name of the riding he was first elected to in 2019. But since then, a redrawing of the federal electoral map in eastern Quebec led to two more regional county municipalities (MRCs) being added to the riding, now known as Rimouski-La Matapédia.
It encompasses an area of 11,000 square kilometres eastward along the St. Lawrence River and inland to the Matapédia.
Blanchette-Joncas says Quebec's regions are losing political clout in Ottawa.
"There used to be seven MPs from eastern Quebec. Now we're three covering the region from Montmagny to Gaspé."
Defending Quebec's interests
Asked whether the Bloc Québécois really has any influence in Ottawa, as eternal opposition, Blanchette-Joncas is quick to retort that Liberal MPs from Quebec aren't in a position to defend Quebecers.
"They'll be 30, maybe 40 in Parliament," Blanchette-Joncas says. "Do you think the 80 from Ontario are going to make some space for the Quebecers at the table out of the goodness of their hearts?"
Blanchette-Joncas says the Bloc understands Quebecers' concerns about Ottawa imposing conditions on funding for immigration, housing and health care and their worries for their forestry and dairy industries in the face of tariffs.
"Why would Canada know better than Quebec about what's best for us?" Blanchette-Joncas asks.
No longer a sacrificial Liberal lamb
Alexander Reford, who is the Liberal candidate in the riding, jokes that he's the most assimilated anglophone east of Kamouraska.
He was the longtime executive director of the English community group Heritage Lower St. Lawrence. He recently stepped down as the head of Reford Gardens, a horticultural and cultural hub in Métis Beach.
"A friend of mine, Mark Carney, threw his hat into the political game," Reford says. "And another friend, David Lametti, who was a minister in the Trudeau government, said 'you know, the time is now or never to help out your country.'"
Reford says if he'd run as a Liberal eight years ago, he would have been a sacrificial lamb. The last time a Liberal was elected in the riding was in the 80s. But he feels like the wind has changed and believes even his being an anglophone doesn't matter.
He says people are telling him they're worried about their farms and their businesses and they're looking for a leader in the middle of the upset with the U.S.
Reford doesn't believe Trump is equipped to outwit Carney, who he's known since they both studied at Oxford a few years apart.
"I don't think he plays chess. But [Carney] certainly does. And I think he's done a masterful job of playing his pieces effectively."
A strategic vote
Érik Labbé and Lorie Normandin are sitting in a café in Rimouski. Normandin holds their three-week-old daughter in her arms. They've moved back to nearby Saint-Simon, after living in Quebec City and Montreal.
Labbé knows what he wants in a leader.
"Someone who is proud to be Canadian. Someone who thinks about the environment, education."
Labbé says they normally vote NDP, but because the party isn't present in this campaign, this time, they'll be voting red.
Normandin says the Liberal Party doesn't align 100 per cent with her values. She would normally consider the Bloc, but she says this vote is too important.
"[Conservative Leader Pierre] Poilievre doesn't represent me or what I want for my daughters," Normandin says. "I don't want the vote to split. I want to make sure it's not them that get in."
Room for surprises
Jean-François Fortin is a political science professor at the CÉGEP de Rimouski and the former Bloc MP for the old riding — which was considered a safe seat for the party until the NDP took it in 2011.
Fortin is puzzled by the NDP not making more of an effort in a riding where Guy Caron, former NDP MP and the current mayor of Rimouski, won two mandates.
He says without them in the mix, and the international context, this race has become a little more unpredictable.
"We have candidates for the Liberals and the Bloc who could win. Every vote counts."
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