Quebec cuts emissions, but not enough to put it on track to meeting 2030 climate goals

Quebec's greenhouse gas emissions decreased by 0.1 per cent in 2018 compared to the previous year, but the drop will do little to help Quebec reach its climate-change targets, says an environmental expert.

Figures released Monday by Quebec's Environment Ministry showed that emissions rose by 2.6 per cent in 2017 and declined marginally the following year. 

In a news release, the Environment Ministry acknowledged that "Quebec has not succeeded in reducing its greenhouse gas emissions significantly." 

Jérôme Dupras, an environmental ecologist, said the 2018 reduction isn't enough to put the province on track to meet its goal of cutting emissions by 37.5 per cent (from 1990 levels) over the next decade.

"It's disappointing to see these results in 2017 and 2018, but it's not surprising," said Dupras, a professor at l'Université du Québec en Outaouais.

Last month, the Quebec government promised to spend $6.5 billion over the next five years in the hopes of meeting the 2030 target.

But instead of implementing a carbon tax, Premier François Legault opted for incentive-based policies in an effort to bring down the province's emission rate.

Dupras worries that without consequences, like a carbon tax, Quebecers won't change their behaviour.

"We need a carrot and a stick," he said. "There were many carrots for individual industries but we need more robust recommendations and more constraints to make a difference."

Transportation the biggest source of emissions

The annual inventory released by the Environment Ministry details the evolution of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the province in relation to a baseline year, 1990. 

According to Monday's figures, emissions dropped by six per cent between 1990 and 2018.

Over the same period, the province's GDP and its population increased by 71.3 per cent and 20.1 per cent respectively.

Between 2017 and 2018, there were three sectors of the economy that saw increases in emissions.

In both the agricultural and transportation sectors, emissions were up by one per cent. Emissions from the electricity industry increased by nine per cent.

Overall, though, electricity accounts for less than one per cent of the province's emissions.

Transportation is responsible for the largest share, 45 per cent, of Quebec's overall emissions output. It's followed by industrial manufacturing (30 per cent), residential and commercial buildings (10 per cent) and agriculture (10 per cent).

"In a nutshell, the [provincial] green plan is a great plan on transport, but we're lacking ambition in many other sectors," Dupras said. 

He said Quebec needed to invest in more green infrastructure for the agricultural and forestry sectors of the economy, noting both are significant emitters.