Montreal·Analysis

Quebec political parties at crossroads as National Assembly returns

Each of the three largest parties face a unique set of challenges that could make or break their campaign in 2018.

Libs, PQ and CAQ face challenges that could make or break them before the next election

Premier Philippe Couillard's government begins the second half of its mandate with the start of the legislative session on Tuesday. (Jacques Boissinot/The Canadian Press)

As Quebec's political parties get ready to start a new legislative session on Tuesday, they will have one eye on the election coming in 2018. 

Here's an overview of what the biggest players in the National Assembly will be worried about.

The Liberals: Ghosts of governments past

On the first day of his party's retreat in Gatineau, Que., Premier Philippe Couillard made a confession: his party has a problem.

After spending the summer talking to Quebecers, he realized his message is not getting through. This might be the biggest challenge he faces.

Couillard wants to talk about his balanced budget and recent reinvestments in education and health care. The government feels these are important success stories following two years of unpopular austerity measures. 

But Couillard's efforts at changing the conversation have often been overshadowed by the party's ethical ghosts. 

When Couillard unveiled his balanced budget in March, everyone was paying attention instead to the news that former Liberal deputy premier Nathalie Normandeau had been arrested on corruption charges.

But it's not just the past that is deflecting attention away from Couillard's key messages, it's also how his government deals with ethical episodes of the present.

Economy, Science and Innovation Minister Dominique Anglade was initially open to the prospect of hiring a former CAQ staffer who stole sensitive documents from his party. (Jacques Boissinot/The Canadian Press)

Take, for example, the premier's news conference in Gatineau, where he hoped to champion the government's welfare reform bill.

A former Coalition Avenir Québec staffer quickly eclipsed Couillard's message.

Frédéric Schautaud left his former party with a handful of sensitive documents. He then applied for a job with Economy Minister Dominique Anglade (herself a one-time member of the CAQ).

This ethical mistake wouldn't impact his job prospects, Anglade assured, at least initially. 

That meant Couillard spent his news conference defending Anglade, rather than talking up his party's bill. Anglade later said she no longer planned to hire Schautaud.

Couillard says he wants to repeat his messages more often and louder this session.

He can't control when his party's ethical ghosts make their appearance. But if he can't even control how his government responds to ethical questions of the present, it won't matter how often or loud he repeats his message going into the next election.

Challenge number one for Couillard? Getting his message across. (Clement Allard/Canadian Press)

Parti Québécois: A return to calm

This is the second time the party is going through a leadership race since the 2014 election ousted them from power.

Not only does a leadership race leave party members bruised in its wake, it also means attention is focused on speaking to a small constituency of card-carrying party members. 

That means less attention focused on its role as chief opponent to the Couillard Liberals.

Interim leader Sylvain Gaudreault insists the PQ can live through the roller-coaster ride once again while fulfilling its role as the Official Opposition.

But as we saw during the PQ's own caucus retreat in Gatineau, little attention was paid to the party's priorities for the coming session, which was the whole point of the gathering.

Instead, discussions focused on the open hostility among the leadership candidates.

The recent spat between the two front-runners — Alexandre Cloutier and Jean-François Lisée — only underscores how difficult the process of reconciliation after the race could be.

Whoever is chosen as the party's next leader on Oct. 7 will have to find her or his feet as leader, while at the same time shifting into campaign mode.  

At the top of the new leader's to-do list? Turning the PQ's focus away from itself and towards positioning the party as the main opponent to the Liberals.

Parti Quebecois interim leader Sylvain Gaudreault has to keep infighting to a minimum until the party chooses its next leader. (Jacques Boissinot/Canadian Press)

Coalition Avenir Québec: The art of soul searching

The CAQ has been doing some soul-searching this year in the hopes of getting a boost in the polls.

During the last session, the party tried to expand its appeal beyond the economy with more talk of education. 

They also highlighted leader François Legault's experience as a minister of education and health when he was with the PQ.

But this summer the CAQ took its soul searching to a new level, showing everyone it wants to claim the title as defender of Quebec identity, a place traditionally occupied by the PQ.

With péquistes more focused on themselves lately, Legault sees an opening.

The CAQ leader believes immigrants are not integrating well enough into Quebec society and the issue became the focal point of their caucus meeting in August. Legault announced that, if elected, he would force all immigrants to take a "values test" and decrease immigration levels by 20 per cent while maintaining the current budget. 

Their strategy on immigration and integration carves out a political space for the CAQ that it hopes will translate into votes in 2018.

Over the next few months, we will see how far they are willing to take it.

CAQ Leader Francois Legault hopes playing the identity and immigration card will bring the party success at the polls. (Jacques Boissinot/Canadian Press)

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Ryan Hicks is in his final year as a law student at McGill University and is a former Quebec political correspondent for the CBC. In 2018, he won the Amnesty International Media Award for his reporting from Guatemala about the root causes of migration from Central America to the United States.