Quebec food prices expected to climb and variety to shrink as trade war escalates

The owner of a produce shop in Montreal's Outremont borough isn't looking forward to the escalating trade war between the United States and Canada.

"It's going to increase the cost of our products and subsequently, we're probably going to have to increase our prices," said Patrick Yoo of Marché Frères Young.

"Or we're going to have to reduce certain offerings."

Quebecers can likely expect more of the same across the province, as Canada promises retaliatory tariffs against the U.S. for imposing a 25 per cent surtax on virtually all Canadian products.

In the U.S., these tariffs will make most Canadian goods less competitive, as American importers will now have to pay a 25 per cent levy to bring them into the country. Those added costs could then be passed on to American consumers, pushing up prices.

Canada's counter-tariffs mean American goods, including food products, will likely become more expensive in Quebec, or may no longer be available, as Canadian importers face higher costs. These costs are likely to then be passed on to consumers.

It's not a small number of American products either. In 2024, $2.19 billion in food products were imported into Quebec from the United States, according to the province's Agriculture Ministry.

Food prices may be the first to take a hit because such items are perishable and can only be stored for a relatively short period of time, said Adelphe Ekponon, assistant professor of finance at the University of Ottawa.

Still, he said, eventually "everything will be impacted."

But non-perishables can be stored and Altra Foods, a warehouse in the city's east that specializes in importing kosher food, has been stocking up.

Unsure where trade talks will go, the company shipped in as much product as possible ahead of the tariffs coming into effect.

About half of the company's products come from the U.S., and with trade tensions on the rise, the cost of business will likely go up, according to Altra Foods president Jack Hartstein.

"The American products that we have are the products that are going to present an issue, and some of them just don't have substitutes," he said.

One place where the shelves may seem less stocked is Quebec's liquor board, the Société des alcools du Québec (SAQ). All American-made products will be stripped from the Crown corporation's offerings in the coming days. 

This is just the first day of the trade war. On Tuesday, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Canada will hit back hard at the U.S. after President Donald Trump's tariffs went into effect at midnight on Tuesday. 

Speaking to reporters at a news conference on Parliament Hill, Trudeau said Trump is trying to prompt "a total collapse of the Canadian economy" because he thinks that will "make it easier to annex us," something the U.S. president has repeatedly said he wants to do.

But Trudeau said that will never happen because "when it comes to defending our great nation, there is no price we all aren't willing to pay."

Trudeau has already slapped tariffs on an initial tranche of $30 billion worth of American goods and promised $125 billion more will face levies in three weeks' time. He said more, non-tariff measures are coming if Trump doesn't immediately back down.

Legault vows to help businesses

Premier François Legault said on Tuesday that now is the time to break down barriers and boost trade between provinces to help make up for that. He is also vowing to help businesses stay afloat.

"We are not going to let this happen," he said Tuesday. "We are not going to let ourselves be intimidated, and it is time for all Quebecers to roll up our sleeves together to get through this."

It's going to be a tough time, he added, but "I am convinced that we are capable of getting through this and even coming out stronger."

He said Quebec businesses will be able to count on liquidity to survive the tariffs, notably thanks to the Frontière program, which will provide support of up to $50 million per business for a period of 12 months.