Much of Alberta overcame long-term severe drought — but the roller-coaster isn't over yet

Alberta's dry winter conditions saw a turnaround thanks to spring rainfall across much of the prairies — but that doesn't mean the province is done with drought yet.

Parts of Alberta exited winter this year in long-term drought, raising concerns for how the harvest season would play out. 

"We've been dry for a few years, there was certainly very deep concerns that the dry would continue," Ralph Wright with the Alberta Climate Information Service said in an interview late last month.

He cautions that there is no singular narrative for all of Alberta and that some areas remained dry, including east of Red Deer, north of Lloydminster and the Grande Prairie area. But spring downpour changed the map on moisture conditions for much of the province and the Prairies.

"May was a big month that really, really turned things around and fueled a lot of optimism," Wright said.

The Canadian Drought Monitor's conditions map only shows conditions as of June 30th but is remarkably different than previous months, which featured wide swathes of severe and extreme drought throughout the prairies.

Wright said historically these kinds of shifts are not unknown in Alberta.

"Huge swings from dry, dry times to wet times are plentiful throughout the record."

The latest Alberta crop report, dated July 30, indicates that while parts of the northeast, northwest and Peace regions had recently received meaningful rainfall, the rest of the province needed additional rain to be confident crops would yield as expected.

It says most regions are currently expecting an average crop yield.

More rain needed

Tricia Stadnyk, a professor and Canada Research Chair in hydrologic modelling with the University of Calgary's Schulich School of Engineering, said drought is always dynamic and based on unpredictable weather.

"Anyone that lives in Alberta knows not to trust the weather forecast for good reason. If you don't like the weather, wait five minutes," she said in an interview late last month.

Alberta moved from widespread long-term drought at moderate to severe levels to more interspersed patches of short-term moderate or slightly above normal drought.

She said what was unique for 2023-24 was the long-term absence of moisture, including snowpack.

Alberta's wet season is typically June and July. The heatwave that hit in late July — accompanied by a rapid escalation in wildfire throughout the province — created a new cause for concern. 

"If we don't get any more rain, and we continue with these hot temperatures, we will still have lower than normal water levels," Stadnyk said.

She said if that continues, by September many rivers in central and southern Alberta would be below normal — putting the province into a more short-term severe drought scenario.

"We're not out of the woods yet," Stadnyk said. 

"We're really at this tipping point that it depends on what happens next in terms of which side we go, whether we go back into drought, or whether we come out of it."