Feelings of angst in N.B. business community after Trump win
Donald Trump campaigned on a 10-per cent-tariff on all imports
A business advocacy group says there's angst in the New Brunswick manufacturing sector after Donald Trump's victory in Tuesday's United States presidential election.
"It's not necessarily fear of the unknown, but we do have history with [president-elect] Trump specific to trade tariffs," said Ron Marcolin, divisional vice-president for New Brunswick and PEI at Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters.
One of the promises Trump made during his campaign was a blanket 10-per-cent tariff on all imported goods.
There's been no indication the new administration would exempt Canada from these tariffs, and the previous Trump administration slapped tariffs on several specific industries, including steel.
Expect job losses if tariffs go through, says prof
Asa McKercher, a public policy professor at St. Francis Xavier University in Nova Scotia, said those kind of tariffs would be "ruinous" for the Canadian economy.
"We can expect job losses," said McKercher.
"There was a report from the Desjardins Bank that … tariffs could cause a 5-per-cent dip in the Canadian economy, to our GDP. I mean, this is pretty catastrophic stuff."
Since what Trump is threatening is a blanket tariff, there are no specific New Brunswick industries that would be hurt more than others, but that could always change.
"Trump is known to change his mind," said Marcolin.
"If [tariffs do] come to fruition, it may not be as advertised."
Marcolin said industry groups are already lobbying for Canadian businesses that export to the United States.
"Our association is hosting our sister organizations, in the United States and in Mexico, later this month in Ottawa for a trilateral meeting with various politicians. So the lobbying we know has already started," said Marcolin.
Marcolin said during the previous Trump administration, one approach that worked involved targeted tariffs in states politically important to Trump and Republicans.
"He heard from the states that in fact they were hurting because of Canadian [tariffs]" said Marcolin.
"There is immediate reaction and then the politicians hear about it."
That's not to say Trump won't have specific Canadian industries he's gunning for, especially when it comes to upcoming NAFTA renegotiations in 2026.
"Trump has said on the record that he's looking with glee at those negotiations, particularly around the dairy industry … and on the automotive industry," said McKercher.
And with a federal election looming in the near future, McKercher said it will be important for the prime minister to develop a constructive relationship with Trump, whoever that may be.
With files from Information Morning Saint John & Fredericton