Higgs says he was surprised by slowed vaccination rate following switch to green phase

Premier Blaine Higgs is now saying that he wouldn't have lifted all COVID-19 restrictions in July if he'd known that the pace of vaccinations would lag — even though there was plenty of evidence the province was already falling short.

Higgs told CBC's Power and Politics on Thursday that the slowing vaccination rate after his July 30 reopening caught him off guard. 

"Looking back from what I see right now, then absolutely I would have done something differently," Higgs said. "But I didn't know then what I certainly know now."

The premier has said before that the July decision was the right one with the available facts at the time but is now saying more explicitly that the slow vaccine uptake surprised him.

"If I'd have had any insight into that, I'd have made different decisions back at the end of July." 

But there were plenty of indications heading into New Brunswick's green phase that many of the government's vaccination goals were overly optimistic.

When Higgs rolled out the "path to green" on May 27, he set June 7 as the first target for the lifting of some restrictions if 75 per cent of eligible New Brunswickers had had a first shot of the vaccine.

But the province didn't reach that target for another eight days. On June 7 the rate was just 70.3 per cent.

The premier also set Aug. 2 as the goal for a full opening with all restrictions lifted. He said that was the date "when we anticipate 75 per cent of [eligible] New Brunswickers will be fully vaccinated."

Higgs warned on May 27 that if the province didn't reach its vaccination goals or failed to keep a lid on case numbers and hospitalizations, "we will have to delay our target dates. We need to do this right."

But rather than delay the Aug. 2 target date, Higgs moved it up. 

Higgs announced July 23 that all public health restrictions would end a week later, even though only 62.7 per cent of eligible people had two doses at the time —  an indicator that the province would likely miss the next target.

Even so, Higgs said Thursday that lagging vaccination numbers were "the surprising part of all of it."

When the restrictions ended on July 30, the rate had only reached 66.7 per cent. Higgs told Power and Politics on Thursday the province was "in a very good place" at the time.

The fully vaccinated rate didn't reach 75 per cent of eligible New Brunswickers until Aug. 30.

As of Thursday, 81.6 per cent of eligible New Brunswickers were fully vaccinated and 90.4 per cent had a single dose. 

Higgs said he was "really shocked how long it has taken us to get to these levels ... That's been a factor that I've learned now."

At the same May 27 news conference laying out the path to green, Chief Medical Officer of Health Dr. Jennifer Russell acknowledged the delta variant would require close watching but said she "didn't really want to focus on that today because we're really focusing on hope." 

She also predicted that the province would no longer need public health restrictions to maintain a manageable level of hospitalizations after the green phase.

This week the province set new records for the number of COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations and deaths. A new emergency order is in place and the two health authorities are operating under a red alert.

In Thursday's interview Higgs also continued to conflate two different ways of measuring the vaccination rate in the province.

Higgs said on Sept. 15 that "we wouldn't be having this problem" with soaring case rates if the fully vaccinated rate were at 85 to 90 per cent.

But he was referring to the percentage of people aged 12 and older who are eligible for vaccinations. So far, health regulators have not approved the use of COVID-19 vaccines for children younger than 12.

On Sept. 24, Horizon Health infectious disease specialist Dr. Gordon Dow said, given how contagious the Delta variant is, the target should be "90 per cent of the total population for optimal community protection." 

That would mean about 703,000 people, but until Health Canada approves vaccines for young children, only 696,000 New Brunswickers can be vaccinated.

Watch full interview: Premier Blaine Higgs talks testing requirements at U.S.-Canada land border, and province's decision to lift COVID-19 restrictions in the summer

New Brunswick premier says he supports Canada's negative PCR test requirement at land borders

3 years ago

Duration 8:45

"I think maintaining our current rules would be beneficial at this stage, at least at the beginning," Premier Blaine Higgs tells Power & Politics.

Higgs said Sept. 24 that Dow's target would be "extremely difficult" and on Thursday he again suggested the lower threshold was his objective.

With 90.4 per cent of eligible New Brunswickers having a single dose, Higgs said he wants "to get that last 10 per cent [fully vaccinated] … and get to our 90 per cent." 

The premier said that push is now focusing on regions of the province with low vaccination rates. He said there is "an area that is really resistant to vaccinations, and different groups," but he didn't identify them.

In that area he said some businesses have only 50 per cent of their employees vaccinated.