New Brunswick

N.B.'s Thursday COVID-19 briefing to focus on variant

The New Brunswick government is "aiming" to devote Thursday's COVID-19 briefing to the variants, says Department of Health spokesperson Bruce Macfarlane.

4th case of variant first reported in U.K. confirmed in the province

Department of Health spokesperson Bruce Macfarlane said plans for Thursday's COVID-19 briefing on variants are still being finalized. (CBC News file photo)

The New Brunswick government is "aiming" to devote Thursday's COVID-19 briefing to the variants, says Department of Health spokesperson Bruce Macfarlane.

"We are finalizing the preparations," he said.

No other details have been released.

New Brunswick now has four confirmed cases of the variant first reported in the U.K.

The fourth case, in the Moncton region, Zone 1, was confirmed on Tuesday, when a sample sent to the National Microbiology Laboratory in Winnipeg earlier this month came back positive.

The case, previously reported as a suspected case, is related to international travel and the person continues to self-isolate, Public Health said.

The Saint John region, Zone 2, has two cases of the variant, and the Miramichi region, Zone 7, has one.

Two of these cases are related to international travel and one is related to travel in Canada. These individuals are also self-isolating, Public Health has said.

There is no question whatsoever that the variants will pose astronomical problems with our ability to manage it.- Dr. Jennifer Russell, chief medical officer of health

The variant is up to 70 per cent more contagious than the coronavirus that has caused most New Brunswick infections, Chief Medical Officer of Health Dr. Jennifer Russell has said.

"It transmits more easily and spreads more quickly because the viral load is higher. Therefore, there is more shedding of the virus and it binds to our cells more easily," she said Monday.

"There is no question whatsoever that the variants will pose astronomical problems with our ability to manage it."

'At mercy' of a variant outbreak

That's why the province is trying to minimize the risk of travellers bringing COVID-19 into the province through tightened isolation requirements, she said.

Because once the variant causes an outbreak, "we will be at the mercy of those numbers rising exponentially, causing problems in nursing homes and more hospitalizations, more ICU admissions and more deaths," said Russell.

If that happens, she predicts more lockdowns will be necessary, like the one the Edmundston region, Zone 4, was under.

"That's why we're trying to impress upon the public that anything you can do to reduce your risk, you really must do," Russell said.

Dr. Jennifer Russell, the province's chief medical officer of health, said she'd like to be able to say the worst has passed, but that's not the case now that the variant is here. (Submitted by the Government of New Brunswick)

Even managing the most recent outbreaks, with around 300 cases across the province, "stretched our tracing capacity to the max," said Health Minister Dorothy Shephard. "We did it, but it was challenging.

"So I can only imagine that if the cases become a  much higher number, there will be consequences to that."

The province's best defence against the variant is to keep it out, the minister said.

"Because once it gets into this province and gets transmitted beyond, you know, one person or two people, then the fact is there will be more cases.

"The more cases we have, the more pressure that puts on our health-care system. And that's when you see mass surgery cancellations and different big changes in the protocol of our [regional health authorities]. So for now, it's about keeping it out."

The variants first reported in South Africa and Brazil have not yet been identified in New Brunswick.

Health Minister Dorothy Shephard said New Brunswick has seen what the variant has done in other jurisdictions and 'it would be naive to think it couldn't happen here.' That's why it's 'more important than ever' that everyone follow Public Health directives, she said. (Submitted by the Government of New Brunswick)

Russell previously shared modelling of what January would have looked like if the variant had been in play.

Instead of the actual 567 cases confirmed between Jan. 5 and Jan. 28, a "low estimate" nearly doubled the monthly case count to 1,004 cases. By the end of February, 6,218 people would have been infected, according to the chart.

Last Thursday, Shephard told CBC News the government didn't have any COVID-19 variant projections to share now that the variant is in play.

"But what I can tell you is this, is that we are preparing to have a very public conversation with our population to help them understand how serious this variant is. And that will be coming along early next week."

Asked Monday for more details, Shephard reiterated that it would be this week and deferred to the department spokesperson.

In a statement Tuesday, Premier Blaine Higgs said the confirmation of the latest variant case in the province is a reminder of the importance of "not letting down our guard where this virus is concerned."

"COVID-19 has already taken too much away from us," he said. "We must continue to work together and do everything in our power to ensure it has no opportunity to spread further."

A graph shows how quickly cases would have escalated if the variant had been in play in January. Left column: The actual 567 cases in N.B. in January. Centre column: If the variant had been in play at that time, the best-case scenario would have seen those cases grow to just over 1,000 cases. Right column: Over the next month if the variant had been a factor, case numbers would have grown to more than 6,000. (Submitted by the Government of New Brunswick)