PC MLA warns Higgs that early election call could backfire

A Progressive Conservative MLA is warning the premier not to call an early election and says a campaign based on Policy 713 may not go as planned.

Daniel Allain says parties that try to make an election about a single issue rarely succeed because voters often decide for themselves that other subjects matter more to them.

"I lived an election in 2014 on one issue, one subject. It's hard to stay on that subject for 30 days," he said, referring to a PC re-election campaign urging voters to "Say Yes" to shale gas development.

"Voters want to know about more than one issue," said Allain, who was an adviser to then-premier David Alward in 2014.

"After two weeks people were agreeing with us. However, the last two weeks, we couldn't pivot onto something else."

The Liberals went on to win that election.

Allain noted the Manitoba PC government is now campaigning for re-election after promising a Policy 713-like initiative, "and I don't think the PCs are doing that good."

Premier Blaine Higgs has hinted he may call an election before the scheduled October 2024 date because of dissent in his caucus triggered by his government's changes to Policy 713. 

Those changes include a requirement that teachers get parental consent before allowing children under 16 to use a new name or pronoun of their choice in classrooms.

The changes are now subject to a court challenge, and Allain says that process should be allowed to go forward.

"Right now New Brunswickers want to talk about inflation, housing and health care." 

Higgs attended a march last week of New Brunswickers opposed to LGBTQ school policies, which prompted the acting president of the PC riding association in Allain's Moncton East constituency to resign.

Marc Savoie, the father of a transgender son, said he made the decision after Higgs went to the march and chose not to greet counter-protestors supporting LGBTQ rights.

"He never had any intentions of listening to what the other side has to say. His mind is made up," Savoie said. 

"I can't support my son and support Blaine Higgs. I don't see those two aligning." 

Allain wouldn't comment on Savoie's resignation but said he had been a good volunteer for the party. 

Another PC riding association president, Noémie David Gauvin, also recently quit her position over Higgs's stance on Policy 713.

"I find it sad to take a step backwards after we took a few steps forward" with the original policy, she told Radio-Canada.

Seeing Higgs attend last week's march "confirmed I made the right decision by resigning," said Gauvin, who has a transgender brother.

The former local government reform minister was one of six PC MLAs who voted with the opposition Liberals in June on their motion calling for more consultation on Policy 713.

That led Child and Youth Advocate Kelly Lamrock to draft a report that concluded the Higgs changes violate the Charter of Rights and Freedoms, the New Brunswick Human Rights Act and the Education Act.

Four of the rebellious PC MLAs were cabinet ministers. Two later resigned and the premier shuffled the other two to the backbench.

Higgs suggested earlier this month that those six defiant MLAs remain "a big concern" who could jeopardize his ability to pass legislation, a scenario that might affect his thinking on an early election.

Elections N.B. accelerates preparations

In a statement Tuesday, Higgs pointed out the legislature is scheduled to open a new session Oct. 17.

"The question we face is will the focus be on delivering results for New Brunswickers, or will it be 12 months of political drama causing instability and stagnation in government?" he said.

"My focus and responsibility is to the citizens of this province ensuring we continue on our path of demonstrated continuous improvement."

Elections New Brunswick said in a statement Tuesday that based on speculation in media reports, it was accelerating its preparations for the next campaign.

That includes moving the training of new returning officers, originally scheduled for March 2024, to next week.

Allain said Tuesday he won't vote against the PC budget next March, which if defeated would trigger an election. 

"I'm actually proud of our budgets that we did. So I hope as a party we can move on. There's some reconciliation that needs to be done. We have to talk as a group," he said.

"I hope we take that opportunity to do it, because I think New Brunswickers want to see a four-year mandate. Nobody wants an election today. It costs too much." 

Whether he would vote against other PC bills would depend on what kind of consultation happens within the entire party caucus. 

"There's only one person that can definitely bring the team together," he said, but added that Higgs has not spoken to him since the cabinet shuffle three months ago.

Savoie and Gauvin said they remain PC party members but would not work for the party in a campaign with Higgs as leader.

"I'm not saying I'll never come back but for the moment I can't," Gauvin said. "It would be against my values. I can't support a party whose leader takes that position [on LGBTQ issues]."

Savoie said he's still hopeful the party will return to the moderate political centre after the premier leaves. 

"I truly believe it'll happen. In my heart I still believe the vast majority of party members don't see things the way Blaine Higgs does and that keeps me invested in the party," he said.