2-year wait for help with a heat pump worth it, says Saint John homeowner

Even on the coldest days this winter, Julie Sentner's garden home in west Saint John sits at a cosy and steady 20 degrees, with the basement set at 21.

She says she's thrilled to have two new heat pumps — both installed in November at no cost to her — after applying to New Brunswick's Enhanced Energy Savings Program when it was introduced in 2022. 

"It took a long time. It took over two years. Yes, it did," she said.

"But everyone we dealt with was very helpful. And the heat pumps are wonderful. They're very good." 

Sentner's experience shines a light about what happens when a desirable consumer trend — converting to heat pumps, which use outside air to heat a home, no matter the temperature outside — leads to a change in behaviour that can eclipse expected savings. 

Sentner said she wanted to do her part to reduce her energy use, but surprisingly her first few bills show her power consumption is higher than she expected.

Her history shows ups and downs going back to 2021, with an uptick after converting to her heat pump. Her consumption in February is already tracking to be the highest in the five years she has owned her home. 

This January, she used 1,433 kilowatt hours (kWh), which was less than the 1,762 kWh she used in January 2022 but higher than the same month in the last two years.

This February, she's on track to have her highest usage since she's owned her home, using 2,001 kWh, compared to 1,778 kWh in 2022. 

A colder winter

In Saint John, this winter has been on par with that winter of three years ago, said CBC meteorologist Ryan Snoddon.

Temperatures were slightly colder in December than they were three years earlier. This January has not been quite as cold as January 2022.

However, February has been very cold so far, running 3.6 degrees below average, said Snoddon.

Meanwhile, Sentner is as snug and as warm as she could be. She has been heating both levels of her home, something she did not do before. 

"It would have cost a lot of money," said Sentner, whose husband has an office in the basement. "But with a heat pump downstairs, there's constant heat. It's just perfect." 

Sentner said she was also told by the contractor that she could use her heat pump as an air conditioner in the summer. She said that would also be something she hasn't done before. 

Upgrades can cause 'rebound effect'

Environmental consultant Carl Duivenvoorden says people who use efficiency technologies, such as heat pumps or LED lights, may change their behaviour in a way that cancels out savings.

For example, he said, they might turn up the heat when they would normally keep it down. Or, they might leave the lights on, when they would normally turn them off. 

"There is this thing called the rebound effect and it basically means that all of a sudden if we become more efficient than we think, well, now I can do something in a little bit more excess because I'm saving so much money," he said.

It then raises the question: if every homeowner with a heat pump turns up the thermostat, what impact would that have across the province? 

"In a worst case scenario, the rebound effect can actually be more than the amount of the savings in the first place," said Duivenvoorden. "And I think that's referred to as a backfire." 

Duivenvoorden said Sentner should see more efficiency in the spring and fall. That's when heat pumps work better, he said. When it's not so cold, heat pumps can work three or four times more efficiently than electric baseboard heaters. 

Thousands still waiting

Sentner said she signed up for the program because she wanted to contribute to an overall reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, by using less power. She said she's still hopeful significant savings will show up over time. 

She said she doesn't want people to lose heart about the wait.

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Demand for the Enhanced Energy Savings program has been off the charts since it was introduced. It provides free home energy upgrades, including insulation and mini-split heat pumps, to homeowners with an annual combined gross household income under $70,000.

N.B. Power, which manages the program, says contractors are doing more than 4,700 conversions this year. That includes 2,985 homes converting from electric baseboard and 1,778 homes converting from oil.

However, some 9,000 customers remain on the wait list.

Phasing out heating oil altogether

The provincial government pledged to phase out heating oil use in all buildings in New Brunswick by 2030 if adequate support could be found to minimize impacts to customers and suppliers.

As part of that plan, the province was supposed to commission a study to determine, among other things, exactly how many buildings do rely on heating oil and to what extent various incentive programs have contributed to conversions. 

A tender for the study closed to applications last month. The province says the contract has yet to be awarded.