Who could buy Irving Oil and what could it mean to Saint John?

As speculation swirls about a possible sale of Irving Oil, an industry analyst says potential buyers could include another major oil company, some smaller firms, or even a government.

Meanwhile, the mayor of Saint John says she hopes any potential new owner will be "good corporate citizens as well and continue the philanthropic path we have come to expect."

Patrick De Haan, the head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, and Mayor Donna Reardon were reacting to the news this week about leadership changes at Irving Oil.

Arthur Irving, who was chair of the board of directors and responsible for Irving Oil's "vision," is now listed on the company's website as the chair emeritus, who "continues to maintain a respected advisory role for the board."

His daughter, Sarah Irving, who was executive vice-president and widely seen as the 93-year-old's heir apparent, is no longer part of the leadership team, according to the company's website.

The changes follow Irving Oil's announcement in June of an internal strategic review that could result in "a new ownership structure, a full or partial sale, or a change in the portfolio of [the company's] assets" and how it operate them.

Company spokesperson Katherine d'Entremont has not responded to requests from CBC News for comments on the changes. 

'Unsettling'

It's "a little unsettling to see the leadership changing at Irving Oil," De Haan said. 

The company, founded in 1924 by Arthur's father, K.C. Irving, operates Canada's largest refinery in Saint John, which is "one of the most critical on the eastern seaboard," he said.

It processes about 320,000 barrels a day, producing gasoline, diesel, heating oil, jet fuel, propane and asphalt. And De Haan estimated it exports as much as three-quarters of its refined products to the United States.

"Much of the northeastern markets rely on this refinery for diesel, for heating oil," he said.

If Irving Oil does decide to put the refinery on the market, its "versatility" and ability to export to the global market, including the U.S., Europe and Asia, would make it more valuable, said De Haan.

"I would think a private company would be interested in this" — either a major oil refinery company, another major oil company, or even some smaller firms, which have shown interest in buying refineries in recent years, he said, pointing to PBF Energy in the United States as an example.

It could also be a public company, and "it wouldn't be impossible that there could be also some state-owned operations that could be interested in this," such as governments in the Middle East, for example.

"A lot of oil-producing nations are looking for homes into markets to sell their oil."

Irving Oil also owns Ireland's only refinery, Whitegate, which processes up to 75,000 barrels a day, and "more than 900 fuelling locations and a network of distribution terminals spanning Eastern Canada and New England," according to its website.

Environmental requirements could decrease value

More stringent federal environmental regulations, however, "could be a problem," said De Haan.

There are clean fuel regulations, designed to lower the carbon intensity of fuel suppliers — the amount of carbon dioxide they emit per unit of product — by 15 per cent by 2030. There is also the federal carbon tax, designed to nudge consumers toward other options, such as electric cars or public transit.

Although De Haan contends Irving Oil has done "a tremendous job environmentally improving," this "certainly does diminish the value."

The Saint John refinery is New Brunswick's largest greenhouse gas emitter.

In addition, refinery sales have been "less liquid than they were decades ago, and so there may be a limited amount of potential buyers suited," said De Haan.

In fact, some refineries for sale in the U.S. have not even found buyers, he said.

"So it's a very difficult market right now."

Mayor fears loss of community involvement

For Saint John's mayor, the idea that the refinery could be sold to a "huge conglomerate" raises concerns.

Irving Oil has been "an integral partner in SJ in supporting the community," Reardon said in a written statement.

"Their personal interest in SJ is driven by the fact they are local. They live and work in the city — they are not absentee landlords.

"This bond with SJ is demonstrated in their community involvement and the many partnerships over the years."

She pointed to the Irving Oil Field House, the YMCA of Greater Saint John and the Imperial Theatre's Irving Oil Auditorium as examples that help make the city "livable, vibrant, attractive to young people and families and can drive growth."

A new owner would also have its own headquarters, which would likely mean the loss of local executive positions and the viability of Irving Oil's "legacy build" headquarters uptown, said Reardon.

Although she suspects the refinery would continue to operate in Saint John, she note that when shipbuilding moved to Halifax, many young people "followed the work," and the city's birth rate "dropped significantly."

"We don't want to lose our young people."

Irving Oil is one of New Brunswick's largest employers, with about 4,000 employees.