Strength in numbers: Provincial Liberals pin hopes on 'robust' leadership race

The race for the leadership of the New Brunswick Liberal Party has exactly one candidate right now — but several party members are hoping it doesn't stay that way.

Former federal MP T.J. Harvey became the first declared contender last week, but even one of his supporters is saying Liberals need a real contest between several credible candidates.

"It's very important for the Liberal party to have a good, strong leadership race," says Tracadie MLA Keith Chiasson, who endorsed Harvey at his official campaign launch.

"We're in a position where we have to redefine ourselves in order to figure out what the next step is for the Liberal party. A leadership race is a great occasion to have those debates."

Shediac-Beaubassin-Cap-Pelé MLA Jacques LeBlanc, who is considering running for the top job, agrees.

"The party needs a full-fledged list of candidates who will offer for the leadership race. It cannot be a coronation."

And former Fredericton MP Matt DeCourcey, who is also thinking of running, is calling for a wide field of candidates and a vigorous clash of ideas as well.

They're all anxious to avoid what befell the party after Kevin Vickers was acclaimed leader in 2019 when no one else chose to run against him.

"We were too quick on the draw to get somebody," LeBlanc says now. 

LeBlanc says a large number of candidates would stimulate interest in the Liberals and allow them to sort out their fiscal, social and environmental priorities.

Leadership vote expected next spring

In the run-up to last year's election, Vickers ran an unsteady campaign that led to just 17 seats and 34 per cent of the popular vote, handing the Progressive Conservatives a majority.

There's no date set and no rules in place for the leadership race. Party president Brian Murphy says the party board will choose a steering committee next month to sort out those details. He says a leadership vote is unlikely before the spring of 2022 or after the spring of 2023.

University of New Brunswick political scientist J.P. Lewis says a leadership race contested by several strong, diverse candidates can help the eventual winner sharpen his or her ideas and emerge as a more disciplined leader in an election.

Lewis says although Higgs's ascent to power can be considered "flukey" — it happened despite the PCs losing the popular vote in 2018 — the fact that he had to outdo six leadership rivals in 2016 probably made him a better campaigner.

Despite being the earliest to join the race, Harvey says he's hoping for "robust" debate.

"Absolutely, in this leadership race, a wide variety of candidates, a wide field, is a positive for the party."

Besides LeBlanc and DeCourcey, former Fredericton South Liberal candidate Susan Holt says she is again considering a run.

Holt, who has a private-sector job, ran unsuccessfully in the 2018 election and considered running for leader after Brian Gallant lost power and resigned.

"Timing is everything," she says. 

Former provincial cabinet minister Donald Arseneault, who left politics in 2017, and current Kent South MLA and former health minister Benoit Bourque both say they're thinking about running, too.

Saint John-Rothesay MP Wayne Long considered running after Gallant's departure, but says he doesn't think a provincial run is his best way of contributing right now.

"That's certainly on the federal side," he said.

Long says if he's not re-elected to a third mandate in the next federal election expected later this year, he might reconsider. 

Lewis says the Liberals need a large field of candidates so the party can debate how it wants to define itself and how it should try to win back southern, anglophone ridings where the Higgs government is popular.

"It could be a big branding moment for the Liberals," he said.

The Liberals won more votes in the 2018 election but one fewer seat than the Progressive Conservatives. Gallant hung on to power for six weeks until he lost a confidence vote in the legislature, paving the way for Higgs to be sworn in.

In the 2020 election, Higgs leaned heavily on the province's relative success at keeping COVID-19 cases down. Lewis says that may require the Liberals to consider managerial competency as a key strength for a future leader.

Higgs now has several major and potentially controversial reforms on his post-COVID agenda for the fall, including some in health care and local governance.

After the Liberals lost power in 2018, both Long and Holt said Gallant's campaign was hurt by a blitz of pre-writ government spending announcements and campaign promises.

They both said that hurt the party's ability to appear fiscally responsible to conservative-leaning voters.