New Brunswick treads carefully on Ukraine 'opportunities'

As New Brunswick tries to make itself part of the conversation about Ukraine, it's walking a fine line.

Officials are talking about fast-tracking immigration applications from refugees who could come to the province. Politicians are pointing to how Canadian oil and gas, routed through Saint John, might help Europe reduce its dependence on Russia.

But everyone is treading carefully to avoid seeming too opportunistic.

"I think you have to be very careful not to want to be seen to be profiting from a bad situation like what's happening in Ukraine," said economic development consultant David Campbell.

"But there will be winners."

The overwhelming sentiment worldwide has been to help Ukrainians suffering because of the Russian invasion and to reduce the economic damage caused by the war. 

But tentatively, gingerly, there's another sentiment out there: the idea that certain jurisdictions could find an upside.

"There are opportunities to be had, because there are products, diversions and new supply chains that need to be established," said Tristan Evans of the Washington-based International Trade Council, whose members include Opportunities New Brunswick.

Last week the council hosted an international panel discussion that included Joel DeWolfe, the investment attraction manager for ONB, the provincial government's economic development agency.

Many of the panellists were from countries in the region such as Moldova, Estonia and Turkey. Two Ukrainian officials also participated.

Evans acknowledged New Brunswick may have seemed like "an outlier" and "out of place" on a panel made up largely of Ukraine's  neighbours in Eastern Europe.

But he said ONB, a member of the council, responded to a call for participants and was chosen as "indicative of a smaller organization representing a province that might be fundamentally impacted as a result of this war."

Even so, DeWolfe offered few specifics about what New Brunswick could offer.

Asked by the moderator for his thoughts "on how we can help right now," DeWolfe said New Brunswick was "looking at this from a number of angles."

He pointed out Canada was speeding up the process for Ukrainians looking to emigrate here. 

He also said Canadian governments and banks should adopt similar policies as they did during COVID-19 to give companies hit by supply chain disruptions more "flexibility" on paying their bills.

ONB turned down an interview request but said in an email that it welcomed "any opportunity to talk about our partnerships at all levels of government and in private industry."

Consultant advises caution in energy sector

Campbell recently posted an article arguing New Brunswick should get "our share" of any refugees coming to Canada.

But he cautioned that the idea of a long-term boost to the province's labour force isn't as simple as it sounds.

He said hundreds of new arrivals could add to an already severe housing shortage. And he said if the situation in Ukraine improved, many of them would probably return home.

He's also sounding a cautious note about the talk of new opportunities in the energy sector.

New Brunswick Southwest Conservative MP John Williamson is promoting the idea of shipping Canadian natural gas to Europe to help countries there reduce their dependence on Russia as a supplier.

Repsol, the owner of the Saint John LNG import terminal, has been studying whether to convert it to an export terminal.

"Repsol is continuously exploring options to maximize the value of the terminal, with a particular focus on new lower-carbon opportunities to help meet market demand and to support the energy transition," said spokesperson Michael Blackier.

"The company will look at any/all business that enhances or creates value at Saint John LNG."

But Campbell said the economic benefit from that conversion for New Brunswick, and the likelihood it can help Europe during the current crisis, is questionable.

"It might take several years," he said. "It's not like you could just turn that on. And the other thing, it wouldn't be that beneficial to New Brunswick because it wouldn't be using our gas. It would just be bringing gas in from Alberta, probably."

Former New Brunswick premier Shawn Graham said a revival of the Energy East pipeline to ship Alberta crude oil to world markets and replace Russia's supply might also be in the cards.

Graham now advises businesses looking to import from or export to Canada.

"The challenge has been that as geopolitical tensions increase, it becomes more complex and more difficult to navigate," he said.

A lot of Graham's business is in China, which saw relations with Canada sour over the detention here of Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou and the retaliatory arrest by China of Canadians Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor.

He said the invasion of Ukraine is "at a whole different level" because Canada was too small to isolate China economically on its own, while the global sanctioning of Russia can have an effect.

"So it's two different issues, totally."

McCain suspends Russia project

One of New Brunswick's biggest companies, McCain Foods, announced after the invasion began that it was suspending construction of a $200 million potato processing plant in the Tula region south of Moscow.

"The ethics and perspective of being a family-owned business from New Brunswick is at the core of how McCain Foods makes business decisions," said Charlie Angelakos, McCain's vice-president of global external affairs.

He said the company will make a final decision on the plant in the coming days. 

Graham said business dealings with Russia would be seen "very, very unfavourably" by the public now.

But "there are opportunities that can arise from crisis situations like this."

"We never want to take advantage of another country that is suffering. But if you can offer goods and services that can help that country through difficult times, I think that's where many business leaders are looking."

Campbell said it's "a little bit uncomfortable" for New Brunswick to be seeking opportunities amid the war.

"But on the other hand, if there's going to be winners, and if there's an opportunity there for your businesses or whatever, you might want to jump in."

Like Graham, he said the priority should be providing goods and services that can help Ukraine and its people as they try to survive and even push back the Russian invasion.

"If New Brunswick companies can be part of a solution, whatever that solution looks like, maybe ONB should be in the room," he said.

"If it's not war profiteering. If it's actually helping the people in that region, then why wouldn't we try to find ways for individual companies to take advantage?"