People's Alliance talks tough with PC government, but talk is all it seems to be

It was one of those take-a-deep-breath moments that occur during a minority government: an explicit threat by a pivotal opposition member to vote against the party in power.

Last month, People's Alliance MLA Rick DeSaulniers warned he might oppose Progressive Conservative budget spending estimates for the Department of Environment and Local Government.

The Fredericton-York MLA said he was frustrated about noise and dust created by a quarry in his riding. He called it an injustice and a menace to the health of residents.

"If we don't get some action, and I don't get some kind of an indication very soon, then I may very well vote against this budget for this department," DeSaulniers said, to murmurs of delight of Liberal MLAs across the aisle.

With the PCs holding only 22 of 49 seats in the legislature, and the Greens voting against them almost all the time, the three Alliance MLAs hold the survival of the PC government in their hands.

They've promised to support the Tories on budget confidence votes until the spring of 2020, but to decide on other matters vote by vote.

DeSaulniers's threatened switch to defeat the department's budget estimates at committee wouldn't bring down the government, but it would slow down the legislature's budget process and embarrass the Tories.

Ultimately, he backed off after getting a meeting with Premier Blaine Higgs on the quarry issue — the latest example of the Alliance talking tough about challenging the Tories then opting to co-operate.

'Picking and choosing battles'

Last fall, DeSaulniers and Miramichi Alliance MLA Michelle Conroy said they might vote against language in the PC throne speech endorsing shale gas development.

They ended up voting for it, explaining that it applied in only one area of the province and would not affect their ridings.

The Alliance has also rattled its sabres about withdrawing support of the Higgs government over its labour dispute with nursing home workers, but hasn't followed through.

"They are probably picking and choosing battles where they know if they can make a little bit of a fuss and get some attention in the media, they can get a meeting with the premier or the minister," said political scientist Jamie Gillies of St. Thomas University.

"You suss out just how much leverage you have. So perhaps what we're also seeing is learning the ropes. They're not necessarily stumbles, but it's learning the ropes."

Spokesperson Laverne Stewart said DeSaulniers and Alliance Leader Kris Austin were not available Wednesday. But she said DeSaulniers was satisfied with his meeting with Higgs about the quarry.

"Resolutions to issues happen through discussion as it always should be," Stewart said.

Nursing home workers' contract

The nursing home issue has been the most drawn-out example of the Alliance exerting pressure without actually voting against the PCs.

The employees from 46 non-profit homes, members of the Canadian Union of Public Employees, have been without a contract since 2016. Their ability to strike is tied up in a court battle over whether they're considered essential workers.

In March, the Official Opposition Liberals and the Greens made a deal with the Alliance to pass a non-binding motion calling on the PC minority government to agree to binding arbitration with nursing home workers.

Austin amended the wording of the motion to call for arbitration "under terms and conditions acceptable to all negotiating parties and the province" — wording Higgs supported.

But the Liberals said that undercut the original deal, and the motion never came to a vote.

Austin also attacked the CUPE leadership, saying they were "not being rational. They're not coming to the table in good faith."

They try to be populist, so they speak out of one side of their mouth to their base and then they do the opposite.​- Liberal MLA Jean-Claude d'Amours

But at a meeting with CUPE members in Miramichi, Austin said he would push Higgs to reach a "reasonable" deal with the union and hinted he might pull his support for the PCs if the premier didn't do it by April 17.

"I believe he will, and I'll tell you what: if he doesn't, that changes the game for us," he said.

Even so, the mid-April deadline came and went without any major shift by the Alliance.

'In the end, there's no result'

Last week, the Liberals brought back their motion on binding arbitration for more debate — at Austin's request, according to Liberal House Leader Jean-Claude d'Amours.

They said they again secured a deal with Austin to support it, only to have the Alliance leader use a speech to run out the clock before it could be brought to a vote.

"They try to be populist, so they speak out of one side of their mouth to their base and then they do the opposite," d'Amours said. "In the end, there's no result."

But Gillies said the party seems to be sorting out how far it can push Higgs without overplaying their hand.

"Non-People's Alliance voters perhaps didn't give the People's Alliance credit for the fact they're actually quite adept at evolving in a minority government situation," he said. "They have learned the ropes quite quickly."

Austin has said repeatedly that the Alliance has more leverage over government decision-making by co-operating with the PCs, and it would use that leverage to push for a more generous offer to CUPE.

Gillies said the party is probably aware that leverage has its limits because triggering an election could spell the end of the Alliance's influence.

"They take down the government on this and the PCs win a majority, and they're out," he said. "They're just the third or fourth party in the legislature."