N.B. residents, businesses facing uncertainty with potential recession
Residents, business leaders, premier say the province can rise to the challenge
People like Pauline Bordage have been dealing with inflation for years now, from day-to-day spending on groceries to longer-term investments like house purchases and the potential for interest rate changes that increase mortgage costs.
Now Bordage and her family are facing a potential recession and cutting back spending even more in the face of uncertainty.
"We are a young family and recently have a young child so the cost increase might impact him as well," said Bordage, who lives in Fredericton.
"That's something that's always in our minds, so it's very concerning. But we'll need to adjust and hopefully we'll get through any recession we might have to encounter."
Deloitte Canada released a report last week that showed New Brunswick is projected to have the slowest growing economy in the country in 2025. The gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to increase only 0.6 per cent, tied for worst in the country with Quebec.
The report also said the country could be facing two quarters of negative growth, which means there could be a recession.
In March, the provincial government forecasted a growth rate of 1.1 per cent, based on data aggregated from economists nationwide from January and February, said New Brunswick Premier Susan Holt.
She's not surprised the projections have gotten worse.
"We've been seeing the economic forecast decline consistently since late last summer when we originally built our platform budget and then they dropped more after [U.S. President Donald Trump] announced his tariffs," Holt said. "Now I think people are looking at tariffs that might be persistent for longer than we anticipated."
Holt said we may be headed for an economic downturn, even using the word "recession."
"The chilling effect [tariffs have] had on business investment and employment and hiring plans, not only in New Brunswick, but around the world, has meant there's a lot of caution from the forecasters and from the people projecting what kind of growth our economy could experience," she said, "to the point that some people are are using the R-word, the word recession, about what might be coming."
'I can't get over how much prices have increased.'
Businesses are facing uncertainty and so are people from different stages of life.
Hilary Young, who teaches at the University of New Brunswick, said she feels economically secure right now, but she worries about the impact on younger people and families.
"I see it at the grocery store," Young said. "I can't get over how much prices have increased. I can't imagine what it's like for people paying rent, high rates of mortgages, kids in school."
Morgan Peters, the chief executive officer at the Fredericton Chamber of Commerce, said consumers and companies are responding in much the same way — by reigning in spending at the household and business levels.
"The [biggest] concern for me is the domino effect of the hit on consumer confidence and investor confidence," Peters said. "That's what we've been hearing from members ... uncertainty is really creating a bit of a freeze on investment."
Peters said governments and companies have to take control of their own destinies in the face of the uncertainty created by Trump.
'Our region is going to be stronger'
Shannon Merrifield, the chief executive officer at the Saint John Region Chamber of Commerce, said the city and the province will ultimately benefit from confronting these challenges in a constructive way.
"'Our region is going to be stronger because of the actions that we're putting into place now — by diversifying our markets, by expanding our trade partners, by buying local and also [placing] a focus on infrastructure that we need in order to strengthen our economy," Merrifield said.
"There's talk of a recession. We don't know if that's necessarily going to be the case, but it is forcing our hand into becoming more self sustainable. In the long run, that's going to help us."
Holt said we may be headed for an economic downturn, but she said the new federal government is tackling the tariff issue by starting negotiations with the U.S. and looking at investing in growth opportunities across the country.
She said the province will embrace the opportunity to work with them. She said the province has many sectors poised for growth, like modular-home construction and critical-mineral exploration.
"We have the projects ready for them to invest in. We have the supports ready," said Holt.
"We think New Brunswickers are ready to take advantage of some of these employment and economic opportunities. And so we are going to do everything we can to move at the speed of business and to do so with municipal and federal partners so that we can beat these forecasts and expectations. And maybe little New Brunswick will surprise some people."
Many New Brunswickers share that sense of optimism.
'Uncertainty is the new normal'
"Hopefully with interest rates coming down things will get better, but obviously tariff uncertainty impacts a lot of people in this world," Young said. "I guess uncertainty is the new normal."
Fredericton resident Robert McNamara remains optimistic and doesn't believe there will be a recession.
"I think we'll be very close to one, but I think it'll be one of those things that will work its way through. I think the economy is going to turn around," he said.
"[I'm] just trying to be very positive."
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With files from Chad Ingraham, Savannah Awde and Information Morning Fredericton