'Growth is gone': Demographic squeeze threatens medicare

New Brunswickers are on the way to becoming second-class citizens in the Canadian federation and provincial politicians must act quickly to take advantage of economic opportunities, such as natural resources, or risk losing programs like medicare, warns a public policy analyst.

Richard Saillant, director of the Donald J. Savoie Institute at the University of Moncton, blames what he calls "the great demographic imbalance" in his new book, A Tale of Two Countries.

About 16 per cent of Canadians are currently seniors and within 25 years, that number will jump to 24 per cent, said Saillant. In New Brunswick, however, it will be "well above" 30 per cent.

Growth in New Brunswick will be "slower" than the rest of Canada and pressures on the health-care system will be greater, he said.

"I'm essentially saying in 10 … 15 years, medicare as we know it will not be sustainable in New Brunswick, based on our own means," said Saillant.

Gallant 'delaying conversations'

"If we want help from our more prosperous provinces, younger provinces, we have to demonstrate that we've done everything we could to help ourselves first" and "show that we're good fiscal stewards."

That means transforming public spending, said Saillant, who warned in his previous book, Over the Cliff?, released two years ago during the provincial election, that New Brunswick was barrelling toward bankruptcy.

"When [Premier Brian] Gallant is saying that we're going to protect health care and education, what we're doing is essentially fixing the status quo and delaying conversations to after the next election," Saillant said on Friday.

Immigration will help, but the province needs to accept "growth is gone," he said.

"We need to have a conversation about how best to take advantage of our limited economic opportunities," such as shale gas and the proposed Energy East oil pipeline.

"We need to start having that conversation now."