N.B. capital among 3 communities projected to hit flood stage next week

Three New Brunswick communities are expected to reach or surpass flood stage within the next week, according to the provincial Emergency Measures Organization.

The St. John River is expected to swell beyond its banks in Fredericton, Gagetown and Saint-Hilaire on Wednesday, the province's five-day forecast indicates. 

EMO officials are urging residents along the St. John River to remain vigilant after a surprise spring snowfall this week and rain in the forecast next week.

In Fredericton, water levels on Friday morning reached 4.65 metres, nearly two metres below the 6.5-metre flood stage. The river will dip to 4.2 metres through the holiday weekend before rising up to 6.6 metres Wednesday.

Saint-Hilaire, a small village just south of Edmundston, the river will rise 2.8 metres, from 143.8 to 146.6 metres, between Friday and Wednesday. Flood stage is 145.5 metres in the area.

The river level in Gagetown will remain roughly half a metre below the four-metre flood stage until reaching that point Wednesday.

The projected river levels on Wednesday in Fredericton and Gagetown would still be at least two metres below record levels — 8.6 metres (1973) in Fredericton and 6.7 metres (2018) in Gagetown.

Consecutive severe spring floods in 2018 and 2019 caused tens of millions in damage, closed roads, including the Trans-Canada Highway, and displaced hundreds.

City monitors disease, river

The City of Fredericton is closely monitoring the situation, according to a city spokesperson.

"Flood stage in Fredericton is 6.5 m. That basically means it comes over the banks of the river and on to the Green. At that level, it has very little impact on homes and none on our transportation network," communications manager Wayne Knorr said Friday evening in an email.

"Our Emergency Operation Centre is at Level 2 and we are monitoring both COVID-19 and River Watch. We remain in contact with our provincial counterparts."

The city has also updated its River Watch site with the latest public advisories and preparedness tips.  

Flooding amid the pandemic

Prior to the New Brunswick EMO's statement Friday evening, Gagetown Mayor Mike Blaney told CBC News the river hit warning level for the area Wednesday and town officials are already taking measures to mitigate flooding and assist villagers. 

The community of 700, about 50 kilometres southwest of the capital, has seen "drastic" flooding in the past two years, Blaney said.

"We're all feeling anxiety and stress from the pandemic situation, so it's just another layer of that on top," the mayor said.

The outbreak of COVID-19 and subsequent restrictions on public movement complicates flood relief efforts, which usually see droves of volunteers turning out in aid of inundated communities. At a time when physical distancing is paramount, Blaney said they may not have as many helping hands this year.

He said the local EMO will be operating under the COVID-19 directives set by the provincial government, and the town is examining how to use town facilities to house displaced individuals in a safe manner.

Yet there's hope it won't come to that.

Blaney said many property owners in flood-prone areas have renovated their buildings to lessen flood damage, including the use of water-resistant materials and elevating wiring and plumbing.

"Individuals I know are, perhaps, a little less, if I could even say that, stressed out or anxious because some of them have taken those steps," he said.

Ice jams

On Thursday, the New Brunswick EMO said in a statement it was monitoring two minor ice jams in the upper river basin near Sainte-Anne-de-Madawaska and at the mouth of the Tobique River. 

"Ice jams have the potential to cause a rapid increase of water levels in affected areas," the statement said.

"Water levels remain below flood levels in all areas, but the situation could change quickly."

Residents can report ice jams and localized flooding at any time by calling 1-800-561-4034.