MP or PM? What New Brunswickers will be thinking about at the ballot box
Close races might benefit from local candidate influence, says political scientist
Fredericton resident Brady Green says when he thinks about how he will vote in the upcoming election, his local candidates are top of mind.
"I think people should be voting for the person who matters more in their community — the person who's going to be doing more for … wherever they live," Green said.
But not everyone feels that way. In Oromocto, Preston Harper said he doesn't care who is on the ballot locally — his priority is seeing the federal government switch hands.
Barb Hammond Roy, who lives in Fredericton, wants the Liberals to stay in power, feels similarly about her local candidates and she thinks most others agree.
"People do identify more with Carney than the local people," she said.
Alex Marland, a political scientist at Acadia University, said that according to the research, the majority of Canadians will be thinking on a national level in a federal election campaign.
Voters will be most likely thinking about party leaders, the parties themselves and possibly party-specific issues and policies, he said.
But in terms of local candidates, Marland said it really only makes a difference in close races.
"The problem is, for political parties, they have no idea where the close races are," he said.
"Some you can tell. So it doesn't make a lot of sense, you know, for the Conservatives, or frankly, for any party, to spend a lot of resources in Alberta, where a lot of people are going to vote Conservative.
"But it does make sense to compete in New Brunswick, because ... election polling suggests that some of these seats could flip depending on the amount of local activity."
However, people won't be thinking about their local candidates without being activated to do so, said Marland.
If a local candidate is engaging with people — through lawn signs, donations, volunteering, door-knocking — that may motivate voters to start giving more thought to the candidate.
In Atlantic Canada, Marland said people often have deep attachments to their communities because ridings aren't necessarily as densely-populated as they are in big cities.
As a result, he said people may have more of a connection with their local candidates.
"If you're in a big city, let's say Toronto, and you're in a coffee shop, you can look around the coffee shop, and at any given time, most of those people are not your constituents," said Marland.
"On the other hand, if you were to go into a … community store in a rural area in Atlantic Canada, you're going to go in and you're going to know the person working behind the counter."
And Marland said research shows that personal communication has far more of an impact than communication through "mass media or electronic means."
Marland said it's not likely someone will shift their party allegiance in order to vote for a local candidate they like or know personally.
"If local candidate factors really mattered, we would see far more Canadians being predisposed to voting independent," said Marland.
"Because … even if you like the local candidate, if somebody is with a political party, they're still beholden to that party's kind of demands and restrictions on what they can do in terms of advocacy.
"So you might like playing darts with somebody, but if they get elected with a party, they can't really represent you the same way an independent can."
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