Christmas tree exporters in Nova Scotia worried about Trump tariff threat

In a field down a long dirt road in northeastern Nova Scotia, Roger Trenholm is pushing cut fir trees through a baling machine, getting them tied tightly and ready to ship. It's work he's been doing on his family tree farm since he was 12 years old.

He owns Trenholm's Wholesale Christmas Trees, growing rows of firs across more than 11 hectares in Caledonia Mills. He sells some of his trees to local suppliers, but most are purchased by a local exporter and shipped to the U.S.

He says business has fluctuated over time. Some years the market is flooded with trees and they don't fetch a good price. But lately things have been different. 

"The demand for the trees was really good. Excellent," Trenholm told CBC News in an interview from his tree farm. "Can't get no better than the last couple of years."

But that could soon change.

U.S. president-elect Donald Trump's threat of a 25 per cent tariff on all goods coming from Canada and Mexico has some in the industry worried about next season. 

"That 25 per cent tariff would be huge for our industry," Shirley Brennan, the executive director of the Canadian Christmas Trees Association told CBC News in an interview as she visited a farm in Newmarket, Ont. "Especially because it's such a high ... percentage that goes … to the U.S."

The 2021 Census of Agriculture counted 1,364 Christmas tree farms across the country, most in Ontario, B.C., Quebec and Nova Scotia. The census also tracked the export of more than 2.4 million Christmas trees, 97.2 per cent of them going to markets in the U.S.

The United States Department of Agriculture said live Christmas tree imports from Canada were valued at $68 million US in 2022.

Trump has framed the proposed tariffs as a warning to the U.S.'s primary trading partners that "they will pay a very big price" unless both Canada and Mexico take aggressive action to tighten border security.

Trump said he would impose a 25 per cent tax on all products entering the U.S. from the two countries on Jan. 20, 2025, his inauguration day, unless those countries curb the flow of drugs and migrants across their borders. 

This year is safe, Brennan said, but the Christmas tree industry could lose millions next year, and U.S. retailers who buy many trees from Canada could have shortages, or higher prices. 

"That could impact our growers for sure," Brennan said. "It could also impact the Christmas tree season in the States. If someone decides not to pay that tariff and not ship to the States, then that is going to impact whether or not they're going to have trees because they rely on Canada for their trees." 

Even 'negotiating tactic' can disrupt trade: economist

Economists say if the tariff goes through, the impact would be felt in industries far and wide.

"The larger [proportion] you sell in the U.S. market, the more you'll be affected," said Sylvanus Kwaku Afesorgbor, a professor of agrifood trade and policy at the University of Guelph in Ontario. "There may be a lot of jobs that may be affected. If you look at the forestry industry in Canada, it employs over 200,000 people.

"So, it tells you that [this kind] of tariff could affect job opportunities in Canada, especially if we are not able to sell into the U.S. market or it becomes more expensive to sell into the U.S. market," he said. 

Some are predicting the proposed tariff won't come to fruition. But Afesorgbor pointed to Trump's first term in office, where he called NAFTA the "worst trade deal in history" and imposed a 25 per cent tariff on Canadian steel products and 10 per cent on Canadian aluminum products, forcing Canada to retaliate. Eventually, an exemption was granted.

Afesorgbor said even the threat of such a high tax on imports could disrupt trade. 

"This may be a negotiating tool, but … trade is very volatile, trade is very sensitive to even threats," he said. "You want an environment that is very predictable, not like very erratic policies."

Back in Nova Scotia, trucks wait in a wooded lot where trees are lined up in rows, waiting to be loaded. Workers place them on conveyor belts that carry them into the box of the truck, where hundreds are stacked, most bound for markets in the eastern U.S.

People in the industry here aren't letting the threat keep them from their work. 

"It would be disastrous if it happened, but I don't think it's going to happen," said Norman MacIsaac, with the Northeastern Christmas Tree Association, an exporter that buys fir trees from 70 farmers across multiple counties — shipping 45,000 to the U.S. this year alone.

"We would be priced out," he said. "I just don't see the logic in it. It's not going to benefit the U.S. and it's not going to benefit anybody."