Climate crisis means more extreme weather, N.S. assessment predicts

Nova Scotia faces increased risk of floods, wildfires and crop-killing intense heat because of climate change, according to a risk assessment released by the province Monday.

The report predicts a warmer and rainier Nova Scotia this century with more intense storms, sea level rise and coastal and inland flooding.

"Climate change is having an impact on the health and well-being of our province," said Alex Cadel, a climate specialist with the Nova Scotia Department of Environment and Climate Change.

"We really do need buy-in from everyone across the province to help us figure out what this means for them and what we're ultimately going to do about it."

The assessment uses high-carbon emission scenarios because that is the path the world is on.

By mid-century, the report predicts Nova Scotia will experience daytime temperatures above 29 C for two weeks a year — up from just two days in the 1990s.

Warmer temperatures, more rain and less snow

Nighttime temperatures above 18 C will go from two nights a year in the 1990s to 17 nights above 18 C in mid-century.

Rainy days will increase from 112 annually in the 1990s to 124 in mid-century to 132 by the 2080s.

The report says to expect fewer snowy days each year. Down from 39 in the 1990s to 25 mid-century and 17 in the 2080s.

Warming temperatures will extend growing seasons and reduce heating demand but also bring the potential for drought, floods and insect infestation, the assessment predicts.

• Peak winds will rise by seven kilometres an hour by the end of the century.

• Sea level will rise one metre by the end of the century and another 70 cm more if Antarctic ice sheets continue to melt.

• The ocean will become more acidic with less oxygen.

• By the 2050s, sea surface temperatures are projected to rise by nearly three degrees.

For the first time, the report attempts to track when different top climate hazards will emerge over three 30-year periods this century: 2030s or near-term (2015-2045), 2050s or mid-century (2035-2065) and 2080s or end-century (2065-2095).

"A lot of these flooding-related hazards are kind of the concern in the nearest-term period. Not surprising, we've just lived through yet another hurricane," Cadel said.

The report predicts flooding is the top concern in the 2030s.

By mid-century, wildfires pose the biggest threat.

By the 2080s, extreme temperatures with the potential to disrupt food production, human health, infrastructure and ecosystems are predicted to pose the biggest threat.

Good first step, environmental group says

The assessment was released ahead of a provincial government climate change plan on Wednesday.

A Halifax-based environmental group says the assessment is a good first step.

"What's most significant is the fact that we are integrating all of this data that we're able to get into one singular document and then that's going to be used to influence and inform the upcoming climate plan," said Will Balser, a coastal adaptation co-ordinator with the Ecology Action Centre.

"We're already past the point of pushing it down the road. We're already feeling the effects of this. And so I think going forward we just need to be very clear on what we value most and what we're preparing to protect."

The report says vulnerable populations are more at risk, including the elderly and people who identify as Indigenous or Black.

Vulnerable populations

"We're all exposed to the same hazards, but there are resources we have to respond to those risks: our social networks, our financial resources, our access to information," Cadel said.

"We know those are already not equal and climate change is really just making those existing stresses more challenging. We know that as hazards occur potentially more frequently, it's going to be more difficult for low-income sectors or households to be preparing for that and to respond to that appropriately."

The report suggests obvious steps such as avoiding building in areas prone to flooding or too close to the coast, or altering work hours for outdoor workers to avoid the hottest times of the day during heat waves.

It says more research is needed on other ways to mitigate climate change.

The government committed to another risk assessment in 2025.

The provincial governments, business and ordinary Nova Scotians can use the risk assessment to prepare for what lies ahead.

"The climate crisis demands urgent attention from all of us," the assessment concludes.