Peace pact not 'done deal,' says Cape Breton expert on Colombian guerrillas

It took four years of peace negotiations to reach a deal, but Colombians now appear evenly split over whether the pact is enough to end 52 years of guerrilla warfare, says a Cape Breton university lecturer on globalization and Latin America.

The agreement was announced on Aug. 24 in Havana and on Monday, the leader of the guerrilla movement Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, known as the FARC, announced an immediate ceasefire.

Cape Breton University lecturer Garry Leech says, on paper, the accord is much more comprehensive than deals that ended civil wars in El Salvador in 1992 and Guatemala in 1996.

Leech is an investigative journalist whose work for 13 years focused on Colombia, its social issues, the guerrilla war and the criminal drug trade. He's written eight books, including one about the Colombian rebel movement called The FARC: The Longest Insurgency. He also lectures at the Cali, Colombia, campus of Pontificia Universidad Javeriana. 

From war to crime

"When you think of El Salvador and Guatemala, their peace agreements basically were demobilization agreements and did little to challenge the economic and social causes of conflict, such as inequality and poverty," said Leech.

The failure to reintegrate rebels into society and the economy did little more than transform the country's political violence into criminal violence, he said.

"Most of the fighters all of a sudden entered into civilian life in a country where there are no jobs; there's no way to support themselves," Leech explained.

"For many, the only skill they had was violence, was weapons. The violence in El Salvador and Guatemala today is actually higher than it was at the height of their civil wars."

Demobilizing 8,000 fighters

The Havana agreement has "interesting novel and unique aspects," says Leech, in that "it calls for things like peasant reserve zones, because most of the poverty and inequality in Colombia is evident in the countryside."

"The creation of these peasant reserve zones, where multinational corporations won't be allowed in to access natural resources, where large landowners can't consolidate ownership over the land."

It also calls for reintegration of the rebel fighters, which is where the practical aspects of the peace accord will be tested, Leech said.

"You're about to demobilize about 8,000 guerrillas whose principal skill is violence, and so if you don't find an effective way to reintegrate them into civilian life and give them a means to support themselves, then you run the risk of the same thing happening, an increase in criminal violence."

Before than can happen, the FARC rebels will have to collectively accept the deal and Colombians will vote in a referendum on it on Oct. 2. 

Peace a complicated process

Leech said the outcome is anything but assured.

"The peace process is in Colombia is going to be as complicated and complex as the conflict has been," he said. 

"The FARC are going to a conference of its members in September to get them on board, to make sure that all units do demobilize," he explained, and some members already saying they're not going to stand down. 

"There's a question around how much of the FARC will demobilize."

Then comes the national referendum, which not long ago seemed a foregone conclusion.

"But in the recent weeks, that's narrowed and it's now neck and neck between the 'Yes' vote and the 'No' vote," Leech said. "So, Colombians might actually vote 'No, we don't agree with the peace agreement,' in which case, the conflict will continue."

The reasoning behind many potential 'No' votes, he said, is that after more than 50 years ago of internal warfare, many Colombians simply aren't willing to accept less than the defeat of the rebels in the field.