In Halifax riding, NDP hopes to fend off Liberals, Conservatives to reclaim familiar seat

The federal riding of Halifax, where a byelection was called weeks before Parliament was dissolved, may stand out as being the longest campaign in this election.

But the riding left vacant last year by Liberal MP Andy Fillmore is following a trend happening across the country: issues around housing, affordability and health care are being overshadowed by a trade war with the United States and questions over Canadian sovereignty.

It's a shift that has reshaped voting intentions dramatically over the past two months, according to pundits, and much of it at the expense of the NDP.

Just ask Lisa Roberts. The NDP candidate is making her second run at the seat and says there's a role for an NDP parliamentarian from Atlantic Canada "even if we don't form government."

The former NDP MLA for Halifax Needham jumped into the federal fray in 2021, running against Fillmore in his third election. Roberts came closer to victory than the previous two NDP contenders who lost to Fillmore, who was first elected in 2015 when Justin Trudeau's Liberals swept every seat in Atlantic Canada.

Today the Halifax riding is a different race. There is no incumbent, the Liberal Party is being led by a largely untested politician, and south of the border, an American president is threatening annexation and imposing tariffs.

"I mean, polls are a really funny thing," Roberts said in an interview. "In the fall [of 2024], when they showed me 80 per cent likely to win Halifax, that wasn't real. In the same way that now when they're projecting that the NDP is going to lose opposition status, that's also not real.

"It's not as real as what we know by knocking on doors."

Regardless of her faith in the polls, Roberts acknowledges the tide has turned dramatically in a matter of weeks.

While she may not be feeling that front-runner energy, she's hoping some tradition is still at play here. It's a riding that for many years was synonymous with the name Alexa McDonough. And after her, Megan Leslie. Both are New Democrats who sat in the third-party backbenches, but enjoyed big support back here at home. No Conservative has held Halifax since the Mulroney wave in the mid-1980s.

"I also have a very strong personal memory of how I felt when I was represented, particularly by Megan Leslie. And she wasn't part of the government," said Roberts.

"But I felt like somebody spoke about my concerns that I have in the world and that I have for this country and that I have for this community, and that meant a lot to me. So that's what I'm offering to people."

Roberts's Liberal rival, Shannon Miedema, submitted her nomination papers in November and won the nomination on March 1, one day before then-prime minister Justin Trudeau called the byelection for Halifax. In the ensuing weeks, Mark Carney was named Liberal leader and a general election was called, effectively cancelling the byelection.

On the doorstep, Miedema said Haligonians who've voted NDP in the past are promising support for the Liberals this time around.

"I think some people that are traditionally in the NDP camp are kind of looking at the national picture right now and agree that both NDP and Liberal Party members don't want [Conservative Leader Pierre] Poilievre in power," Miedema told CBC News.

"And so what do we need to think about to ensure that that doesn't happen? Because we don't want the great progress that we have made — our shared values — taken away."

Miedema is originally from Ottawa. She moved to Nova Scotia in 2002 and now lives in Dartmouth. She left her post as the director of environment and climate change for the Halifax Regional Municipality where she helped create HalifACT, the city's climate action plan.

She supported the consumer carbon tax. She also supported its elimination.

"It was a smart piece of policy," she said. "But I think that the Liberal Party of Canada had to listen to Canadians that it wasn't working for them for a variety of reasons and I respect that. The important thing is to figure out a path forward to still meet our international commitments."

Alex Marland, a politics professor at Acadia University, doesn't see the carbon tax — or any other traditional election issue — as a priority for voters right now. Of greater importance is determining who best can protect Canadian interests and the Maple Leaf.

"And frankly, the NDP is not in the game when they're talking about things that involve the Canadian flag," said Marland.

"The NDP is seen as a bit player in all of that and it's really a dynamic between the Liberals and Conservatives. So I just see the NDP very much getting squeezed out."

Mark Boudreau, a communications professional and longtime community volunteer, is carrying the Conservative flag in the riding of Halifax. His staff declined a request from CBC News for an interview, saying Boudreau is "focused on connecting with residents at their doorsteps" instead.

Two other candidates are running in the riding: Amethyste Hamel-Gregory for the Greens and Maricar Aliasut for the People's Party of Canada.