It's an election year, but when are Nova Scotians most likely to vote?

Premier Stephen McNeil recently received star treatment in an aircraft hangar at Halifax Stanfield International Airport, despite the fact it was a major federal announcement.

The newly created $325-million Atlantic Fisheries Fund is a significant show of support, by the federal Liberals, for the region. But it's the Liberal leader and premier who got the most enthusiastic endorsement from the minister hosting the event, federal Fisheries Minister Dominic LeBlanc. He called McNeil a friend and "someone I've admired for a long time."

"What a valuable partner you have been in growing the economy of Atlantic Canada and the economy of Canada," LeBlanc told invited guests of McNeil. "The Atlantic Growth Strategy is a testimonial, I think, to the vision you've had for better jobs, more jobs in Nova Scotia and a growing economy in helping middle-class Canadians achieve their economic potential."

Although it's not unusual for a federal politician to laud a provincial one, especially if they share party affiliation, neither New Brunswick's deputy premier Stephen Horsman, nor P.E.I. Agriculture Minister Alan McIsaac drew similar praise from LeBlanc.

That's because neither is part of a Liberal government facing an election call this year.

Bracing for an election call

That enthusiastic show of support from the federal government is just one of the many signs that Nova Scotians will soon be heading to the polls.

In recent months the premier has added campaign-like visits to his schedule. McNeil was in Cumberland with backbencher Terry Farrell last week and in Truro this week with Liberal candidate Craig Johnson. 

Then there are the announcements and re-announcements. This past week alone the province has issued 16 releases touting a variety of good news announcements, from adding another operating room to the Hants Community Hospital in Windsor and marking the first construction tender for the expansion of the Dartmouth General Hospital to a $9,400 grant for a food box program for Cape Breton seniors.

This is classic pre-election positioning.

How soon the actual election call will come depends on which theory you subcribe to.

Liberal support waning?

A Corporate Research Associates poll released Monday suggested the support McNeil and his government have enjoyed since coming to power may be starting to erode. 

According to the poll, conducted between Feb. 2 and March 1, 44 per cent of those who had a preference said they would vote for the Liberals. That's down from 56 per cent in November.

A 12 percentage point drop over a three-month period is significant, according to Don Mills, CEO of Corporate Research Associates.

When it comes to support for opposition parties, pollsters found a split:

• Progressive Conservatives: 28 per cent, up from 20 per cent.
• New Democratic Party: 23 per cent, up from 19 per cent.
• Green Party: Five per cent, up from four per cent.

Meanwhile, 27 per cent of those surveyed said they are undecided, while three per cent refused to state a preference and four per cent either support none of these parties or do not plan to vote.

Also of concern to the party in power is the fact overall satisfaction in the government also dropped below the 50 per cent mark for the first time since 2013.

Although the other major parties are well behind in popularity, according to those surveyed, the drop in support will provide ammunition to Liberal strategists pushing for an early election call.

McNeil won't rule out snap election...

The Liberals have delayed the spring sitting of the legislature and the premier has said his government won't introduce a budget until after Easter.

We're going to go in and table a budget and have a spring session. But time will determine where we go at that point.- Premier Stephen McNeil 

That has opened the door to speculation that instead of recalling the House and introducing a budget, McNeil will instead visit the lieutenant-governor to dissolve the legislature and send Nova Scotians to the polls.

On Thursday, McNeil refused to rule out a snap spring election — but not before a budget is tabled.

"We're going to go in and table a budget and have a spring session. But time will determine where we go at that point." 

There's another theory: Finance Minister Randy Delorey introduces the budget the week after Easter, but his boss calls for dissolution before week's end and the start of estimates.

Or McNeil could, at any point before the budget vote, pull the plug on his first mandate in search of a second.

...but summer or fall vote more likely

Barring a truncated spring sitting and snap election call, the earliest McNeil could visit the lieutenant-governor would be at the end of the legislative session, which he has said he wants over by the Victoria Day long weekend on May 22.

Election periods are a minimum of 30 days long and election day is always a Tuesday. In 2013, the campaign lasted 35 days. 

Having taken the time to pass a budget and having faced a barrage of criticism from the opposition parties during the sitting, the Liberals will almost certainly want to sell their fiscal plan and gauge the mood of voters during at least part of the summer.

That makes a late summer or early fall vote the next most likely time for a campaign.

Asked about election timing this week, McNeil offered little to enlighten voters. 

"At some point I'm going to have to go to the polls. When all of the things that we want to accomplish are done, we'll do so."