Where recent Liberal spending is going as election speculation mounts

Since the beginning of March, members of Stephen McNeil's government and backbench Liberals have been criss-crossing the province making spending announcements as speculation mounts an election will soon be called in Nova Scotia.

A CBC analysis of 51 recent commitments shows 44 per cent of those good news announcements took place in Liberal-held constituencies or were primarily to the benefit of those ridings. Liberals hold 67 per cent of the seats in Nova Scotia.

Ridings held by the New Democratic Party received nine per cent of the government's attention, while Progressive Conservative-held constituencies received one per cent of the spending. The parties hold 12 per cent and 20 per cent of the seats, respectively, in the House of Assembly.

For 45 per cent of the announcements, more than one riding or MLA — often in different parties — could claim some benefit for residents in their constituency.

Check out our interactive map of the data:

Most, but not all, of the announcements had a dollar figure attached. Of the $71.7 million promised or committed by the governing Liberals for specific districts or areas, more than $31.6 million has been earmarked for Liberal-held ridings.

New Democrat-held ridings are getting at least $6.8 million in spending and Progressive Conservative-held constituencies are getting at least $675,000.

More than $32.6 million in spending promises affect more than one party or electoral district. Improvements to the Cabot Trail, announced on April 20, account for the majority of this expenditure at $24.8 million.

Another 16 announcements were provincewide and worth more than $70.5 million combined.

'Number of factors converging'

Longtime Liberal strategist John Young, who has worked on more than a dozen provincial and federal campaigns, said people should not be too quick to label all that spending as strategic.

"In Nova Scotia, at the moment, you have a number of factors converging," he said.

"You have the end of fiscal year, which means you get some spending. You have federal and provincial programs — you have to access the federal money or it goes away.

"You have the fact the legislature is not sitting so that cabinet ministers and the premier can go to various places in the communities and you have the construction season starting, so there's some natural work there."

'Really difficult' to move votes with announcements

Young said many of the announcements are an attempt to "clear the decks" — meaning they are smaller, project-specific announcements that ministers or the premier want to make in case they are no longer in cabinet or in power after the next vote.

In some cases, he said, trying to win votes is secondary.

"What you may be doing is getting a local MLA off your back by saying, 'OK, I'll support your library or whatever' or you may get the mayor of the town to say that you're a nice guy because you helped him get a new sewer project done," he said.

"But it's really difficult, unless you're doing something extraordinarily significant, to move votes by making announcements."

Young chuckled at the suggestion governments were always calculated in their approach to electioneering.

"You can often give governments too much credit for planning. Some things are accidents. Is it a coincidence or is it an attempt to curry favour? Perhaps. But it's very difficult for a government to sit down — say a month ago — and say, 'OK, what announcements can I make in this town that are going to make people happy?'"

$70.5M in provincewide spending

Spending announcements that affect the entire province are not reflected in the map:

• $18.1 million from provincial and federal governments for rent supplements to boost affordable housing (April 18)
• $10 million for repairs and reconstruction on gravel roads (April 7)
• $974,000 to reduce wait lists for psychological educational assessments (April 6) 
• $2 million for Nova Scotia 150 Forward Fund. The new funding will support 132 projects across the province (April 6) 
• $6.9 million will be added to the Nova Scotia Film and Television Production Incentive Fund (April 6)
• $600,000 to the program Connect2, which funds walking and biking paths, ride sharing and other sustainable transportation (April 4)
• $1.5 million to create a program that will perform full efficiency upgrades for First Nations homes and offer training to community members (March 31)
• Additional $4 million for the current HomeWarming program, and $2 million to create a new program for affordable rental units and non-profit housing (March 31)
• Government committing $13.6 million to SHIFT: Nova Scotia's Action Plan for an Aging Population (March 30)
• $1.44 million for 22 municipal and community high-speed internet projects (March 27)
• $4.4 million as a permanent investment in SchoolsPlus by 2019-20 (March 20)
• $564,000 to expand access to naloxone (March 10)
• $150,000 to create a Nova Scotia seafood brand (March 2)
• Canada Health Infoway will reimburse the province $4.2 million over the next three years