Trans-Pacific Partnership could affect vote in Glengarry-Prescott-Russell

The Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal could affect how dairy farmers vote in the upcoming election, and in one eastern Ontario riding those votes could change who gets elected.

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A planned news conference to announce a deal on Sunday was repeatedly delayed and finally cancelled Sunday evening as negotiations continued.

Farmers have long been an important voting block in rural communities across Ontario and helped form the backbone of Conservative support when that party took power in 2006.     

Embrun dairy farmer Noelle Pasquier said she voted for Conservative Pierre Lemieux in 2006 in the riding of Glengarry-Prescott-Russell.

"Farmers brought him in and he shouldn't feel so comfortable, because we're fed up," she said during a protest last week on Parliament Hill.

Dozens of tractors blocked Wellington Street in front of Centre Block Tuesday to protest rumours Canada was being asked to open up 10 per cent of the dairy market to U.S. producers as part of the Trans-Pacific Partnership deal. 

Dairy Farmer Rene Buhlmann, of Sonibrand Farm in St. Isidore, came to Ottawa that day holding a sign that said "Don't sell us out."

"We are looking for answers," Buhlmann said, adding he has supported the Conservatives but the TPP has the power to change his vote.

Lemieux faced off with dairy farmers at a debate with the other federal candidates in the riding on Thursday night in St. Isidore but with no deal yet on dairy imports, farmers got few satisfying answers. 

Long history supporting Liberal Party

Like many large Francophone ridings outside Quebec, Glengarry-Prescott-Russell has a long history of supporting the Liberal Party. 

But in 2006, the Liberals lost the riding by 210 votes, one of the slimmest margins in the country, and Lemieux has represented the riding ever since.

In 2006, Pasquier — who owns Ferme les Trois Trefles — said "we were looking for change," but she warns "perhaps it's time for another." 

Francophone vote part of dynamic in tight race

Already the race is looking like a tight contest, according to CBC poll analyst Eric Grenier. 

The founder of threehundredeight.com is projecting a neck-and-neck race between the Conservatives and Liberals with a slight edge for Liberal candidate Francis Drouin.

"It's a riding that the Liberals could pick up," Grenier said, adding the large French population changes the dynamics compared to other Conservative rural ridings.

Add frustration from farmers and it could make a real difference, according to Grenier.  

"Any major issue like the TPP could have a big impact on election day," he said.

Liberal candidate working hard to win farm vote

Drouin has a political background working for the office of Premier Dalton McGuinty, and more recently for a government relations firm. 

He wants farmers to know a Liberal MP would protect dairy farmers in the region, including protecting the market from American imports.

"Farmers are mad," he said, adding he's met with families at their farms to talk about the Liberal plan.

His Conservative opponent said, "Francis has a big hill to climb."

Lemieux pointed out Prime Minister Stephen Harper has assured farmers the Conservatives will protect their market during trade talks. 

Most farmers who suggest their Conservative vote is in play do not say which party they will support. 

The NDP candidate, Normand Laurin, hopes that means they're considering the New Democrats.  

The NDP received 17 per cent of the vote in the last election, but Laurin — an information technology consultant from Vanleek Hill — said Francophones have been watching the party grow in Quebec and could see it as an option now.

The Green Party, whose candidate is Genevieve Malouin-Diraddo in this election, received 3.5 per cent of the vote in 2011.