Ottawa's electricity use projected to surge, forcing grid expansion
IESO estimates winter power use to jump 166% by 2043 as Ottawans move to electric heating
Demand for electricity in Ottawa is projected to soar over the next two decades, especially during the winter, and hundreds of millions of dollars worth of new infrastructure is being planned to ensure power continues to get to the city's grid.
The upgrades and expansions could be paid for, at least in part, by a proposed $6.08 increase to residential users' monthly Hydro Ottawa bills as of January 2026.
By 2043, Ontario's Independent Electricity System Operator (IESO) estimates electricity use in winter will jump a whopping 166 per cent in Ottawa. Summer demand is also expected to grow, but at a slower rate of 33 per cent.
The IESO, which manages Ontario's electricity needs, has spent the past couple of years working with the many players in the industry to update its forecasts for the power Ottawa will need. It released a roadmap this month for how to meet that demand.
The main reason why winter electricity use might someday eclipse the demand of summer air conditioning comes down to how buildings are heated, said Kennan Ip, the IESO's senior manager of transmission integration for eastern and northern Ontario. Gas furnaces are expected to be swapped out for electric heat pumps, he explained.
The economy and population are also expected to grow, and the City of Ottawa has stated goals to transition away from fossil fuels. The municipality is buying e-buses and expanding its electric light rail system. Residents are plugging in electric vehicles. Hydro Ottawa reports ministry data showing about 17,000 electric vehicles are already registered in the city.
As generative artificial intelligence takes off, companies that build power-hungry data centres are also seeking to tie into the grid, said Hydro Ottawa Group CEO Bryce Conrad. Those warehouses filled with IT servers require significant power for cooling.
Transmission lines, substations needed
The IESO recommends more stations in Ottawa and two more transmission lines in the west of the city in the next few years alone — building blocks to keep up with the anticipated surge in demand.
The system is reliable right now, but nimble planning and care is needed to make sure it stays that way, said Ip.
"The key is you don't want to overbuild because it will certainly be a negative impact to to our ratepayers," he said. "But at the same time, you don't want to underbuild because you'll end up being that barrier to growth."
Even though the downtown will see great demand for power, it's extremely costly to add underground cables, he explained. Instead, the recommendation is to build out capacity in Kanata, Stittsville and Nepean to shift the load.
Hydro Ottawa Group is responsible for its own substations, poles and lines that take high-voltage power from transmission lines and convert it to lower voltage that can be distributed to homes and businesses.
The municipally owned utility sees spending a record $1.2 billion over the next five years — double what it's been spending on capital infrastructure. Where it usually builds a substation every five years, it will build one each year, Conrad said.
"So a massive, massive upswing in the amount of work that needs to be done, and that's just to keep pace with what we know is coming," said Conrad.
In his annual presentation to city council on Wednesday, Conrad underscored the global trend toward electrification and away from fossil fuels.
"Make no mistake: This shift is seismic," he told them.
Bills could rise $6 per month
To help pay for all of this infrastructure, electricity distributors in other cities have applied to increase their rates, and Ottawa is doing the same, Conrad said.
The city has an application before the Ontario Energy Board that proposes raising the distribution part of the bill for which Hydro Ottawa is responsible by 17.6 per cent come Jan. 1, 2026, or $6.08 per month on average. That would be followed by an increase of $3.79 in 2027, $3.31 in 2028, $2.76 in 2029 and $2.78 in 2030, according to documents submitted to the board.
The cost of generating and transmitting the power makes up the bulk of a hydro bill, while less than a quarter goes to Hydro Ottawa for distributing that electricity.
But Conrad says ratepayers can't foot the entire bill for all of this infrastructure. He called on the federal government to contribute, because he sees building capacity on the electricity grid as a nation-building project.
"We've got to do in the next 20 years what it's taken us 100 years to do," he said.
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