Leaders and rivals: These Ottawa ridings are ones to watch
Carleton, Ottawa Centre, Kanata on the radar but strategists predict little change
Political watchers in the capital will have their eyes fixed on ridings with high-profile candidates, old rivals and at least the possibility of a dramatic turn.
Two main party leaders are vying for side-by-side Ottawa seats this election, a manifestation of the mix of federal and local politics to which people who live in the region are well accustomed.
Yaroslav Baran, co-founder of Pendulum Group and a former Conservative Party communications lead, calls the local ridings both "interesting and boring."
"Unlike many other parts of the country, we've got a high concentration of notable incumbents running," he said. "It's also not a very volatile electoral theatre. In most cases, if not all, we should probably be expecting incumbents to be winning."
While few expect major upsets, strategists are interested to see how votes shake out in Carleton, Ottawa Centre, and Kanata.
Rural battleground
As candidates and volunteers round enter the final days of campaigning, Baran suggests anyone interested in predicting party fortunes look at how resources are deployed.
For instance, he expects Conservatives to pull people from ridings where the party won't win "in a million years" — like Liberal stronghold Ottawa-Vanier-Gloucester — and shift them to ridings where they might be able to move the needle.
"You want to shore up what you've got," he said of Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre's Carleton riding.
Polling there continues to show a Conservative lead, but also suggests the race may be tightening.
Kathryn LeBlanc, who is principal consultant at LeBlanc and Co Communications and has experience in several roles working for the NDP on Parliament Hill, is likewise glued to the rural riding.
Leaders benefit from a huge boost in name recognition, she said. But they are also susceptible to broad national trends, meaning the Conservative downward slide from pre-election polling would have an effect.
"I think that his message has gotten across, but it just may not be a message that's resonating," she said, noting that the high proportion of political staff and members of the public service blurs the line in many ridings.
"[Ottawa is] a collision of the national contexts and local contexts."
Poilievre's team has tried to pour cold water over reports of trouble in the riding.
But Greg MacEachern, who has experience working on Liberal campaigns, said insiders "aren't really surprised."
The founder of KAN Strategies said Liberal candidate Bruce Fanjoy proved to be "the Energizer bunny of campaigning," applying pressure to any crack in the Conservative stronghold through an exceptional ground game.
When Carleton voters head to the polls on Monday they'll receive the longest ballot ever. The riding also saw the highest turnout in last weekend's advance polling, with Liberal Leader Mark Carney's Nepean riding rounding out the top five.
WATCH: Carleton voters weigh in on 2025 election
Downtown rematch
Before a new Liberal leader and U.S. threats shook up Canadian politics, one downtown Ottawa riding was drawing considerable attention.
"The hope was that with declining Liberal fortunes that the party would be able to scoop [Ottawa Centre] back to the NDP federally, which it had held up until 2015 with Paul Dewer," said Jordan Leichnitz, a former senior staffer for the federal New Democrats.
The NDP's Joel Harden left his provincial seat for a rematch against Yasir Naqvi, the Liberal candidate who spent part of his last term on a failed provincial leadership bid.
Harden's supporters hold up his 2018 Ontario Election win over Naqvi as proof the riding remains winnable even as national support for the party tumbles.
"If I was the Harden campaign, that's probably the best thing they have going for them," said MacEachern. "But Yasir Naqvi running under [former Ontario premier] Kathleen Wynn versus Yasir Navi running under Mark Carney are two very different things."
While Harden is in an unfamiliar federal arena, Leichnitz said he's brought a motivated base of volunteers.
Suburban challenger
Of all the Liberal incumbents, Baran suggests Kanata is not "in the bag" and Liberals will do "everything they can to hang on to it."
Former Liberal cabinet minister Jenna Sudds is facing off against Conservative challenger Greg Kung, a paramedic who holds up his work as an adviser to two Conservative finance ministers: Jim Flaherty and Joe Oliver.
"That riding arguably might have been considered safe territory for the Liberals if it were not for the hard work and grit and early start of the Conservative candidate," Baran said.
"If we see any riding switch hands from the Liberals to the Conservatives in this election, it will be that one."
Kung was one of several Conservatives who got a considerable head start on campaigning, hoping to take advantage of Trudeau's cratering popularity.
But MacEachern doesn't believe that will help them now.
"Twenty twenty-four was then and this is now," he said. "There's a feeling that the Conservative leader is running as if it's September of 2024 and not April of 2025. So I think any gains that the opposition candidates would have had in those ridings were completely wiped out."
Voting day is April 28.
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