Should Ontario lift restrictions more quickly? Be patient, says expert

As provinces across the country move to end many COVID-19 public health restrictions, one expert says Ontario should be calculated with its reopening plan because full reopening is a "self-fulfilling prophecy."

In Alberta, vaccine passports were a thing of the past as of Wednesday, while Saskatchewan planned to follow suit this coming Monday. Ontario has not revealed a set end date for its proof of vaccination system, and Dr. Peter Jüni says it shouldn't rush.

"Right now, we're really on the right track," said Jüni, the head of the Ontario COVID-19 Science Advisory Table and an epidemiology professor at the University of Toronto.

Let's just breathe and be a little bit patient. So that nothing explodes in our face.- Dr. Peter Jüni, Ontario COVID-19 Science Advisory Table

With the level of immunity Ontario's achieved as millions of people now have a third vaccine dose, and the availability of new drugs to help recover from COVID-19, Jüni says now is the time to strategically reopen.

"It would be a terrible pity after two years [to] just mess it up now during the last mile, that's actually what we are trying to avoid here," he said.

Last Monday, the province lifted some restrictions for gyms and restaurants, as well as capacity limits for several venues. The next loosening of restrictions has beens scheduled for Feb. 21 where gathering limits and spectator capacity at venues and sporting events will increase.

By March 14, all capacity limits should be lifted in indoor public settings, but the province hasn't stated when its proof of vaccination and mask mandate will lift.

Multiple sources close to the government tell CBC News that the Ministry of Health is preparing options for cabinet to speed up the timeline of ending existing capacity limits in indoor spaces. 

Proof of vaccination still needed

Jüni says he doesn't understand the rationale for provinces that choose to end their proof of vaccination systems right now.

"They're basically compromising a bit and just saying, 'OK, we don't know, but we open anyway,'" he said.

"But I really believe we have a possibility here in Ontario to do that right."

Jüni believes there are still roughly 30,000 to 40,000 COVID-19 cases per day in the province — a number that can't be tracked accurately anymore since Ontario changed its public testing strategy earlier this year.

This is better than January's peak, but the unknowns mean the province should be patient, he said.

"We just are on a plateau and we now just need to figure out during the next week or 10 days, do we go up again? Do we stay on the plateau?" he said. "That's just really important to watch now so that we're not in a blind fight."

While protesters are demanding an immediate end to vaccine mandates in Ottawa and across the country, Jüni says sudden lifting of restrictions could "backfire."

As of Tuesday, there were 2,059 people with COVID-19 in Ontario hospitals and 449 of those patients required intensive care. The province will probably see its lowest hospital and ICU occupancy of this wave by mid-February, said Jüni.

Earlier this month, Ontario's science table said while indicators suggest the Omicron wave has plateaued or is in decline, an increase in cases, hospitalizations and ICU admissions is also likely as things reopen.

Jüni reminds people it's no longer a matter of months, but a matter of days and weeks before Ontario moves further into its reopening plan.

"Let's just breathe and be a little bit patient," he said. "So that nothing explodes in our face."

People confused and losing trust, scientist says

Simon Bacon, a professor of behavioural medicine at Concordia University in Montreal, says while people are looking forward to an end of mandates, there's "confusion" over the randomness of reopening dates across jurisdictions.

People tend to question the why and the government needs to improve its transparency around its chosen dates, he said.

The government hasn't done a good job of mapping out their decisional process.- Simon Bacon, Concordia University professor

"One of the things on the back of people's minds is they've worked really hard, they've been putting the effort in, and there seems to be a degree of randomness as to where these dates have come from," said Bacon.

Earlier this week, Quebec's premier announced his government will scale back rules — such as no limits for indoor private gatherings starting Saturday — and by March 14, almost all restrictions are expected to lift.

Bacon says while these restrictions and mandates were introduced to protect the health-care system, the timelines for reopening may appear "totally independent of where the health-care system is at."

"We have a smart populous. They see this and they're like, 'hold on, these all seem very arbitrary,'" he said.

These seemingly "arbitrary" decisions can erode the public's confidence in the government, said Bacon. That can become problematic if things turn around — for example, if another variant emerges and the government tries to re-introduce some measures.

"You'll get more resistance," he said. "The government hasn't done a good job of mapping out their decisional process."