When will LRT reopen? Who knows. We'll count the days

If history is any indication, it could be a week, weeks, even over a month before the Confederation Line reopens after yet another bearing-related issue shut down the entire track on Monday afternoon.

So far, the city has said it doesn't have a timeline for reopening LRT.

The August 2021 derailment and shutdown over a similar bearing problem lasted nearly a week.

It took five days to inspect every train. Seventeen loose assemblies were found on nine different vehicles, excluding the failed cartridge assembly that caused the derailment.

Then, in September 2021, the line was shut down for a month and 23 days after it was discovered that some bolts hadn't been properly tightened during servicing after the August derailment.

Partial service resumed Nov. 12.

CBC is bringing back its LRT shutdown count-up clock. You can keep tabs on the length of the latest closure here.

Could be weeks, union head says

With inspections of each axle on every train ongoing, it could take weeks until the system is ready to run again, estimated Clint Crabtree, the president of Amalgamated Transit Union Local 279, which represents OC Transpo employees.

As of Wednesday afternoon, axle hub assemblies on nine trains had been checked and none were found to be out of tolerance, Renée Amilcar, the city's general manager of transit services, said in a memo to mayor and council.

The axle hub assembly from the light rail vehicle on which the bearing issue was discovered has been sent to the manufacturer for an investigation, according to the memo.

Patrick Dumond, an engineering professor at the University of Ottawa who specializes in the monitoring and diagnosis of bearing faults, said a long-term solution that ensures reliability could take much longer.

"I think it depends … if we decide on a Band-Aid solution or if we decide on a proper engineered solution that actually solves the problem," he said.

"The latter will take much longer but will provide a much longer-term fix."

Briefing on root cause expected in September

The city doesn't yet know the root cause of the bearing issues, two years after they first came to light.

A briefing on what's causing the bearings to fail prematurely was expected in September this year, according to Coun. Jeff Leiper, a member of the city's transit commission. His understanding is that the briefing is still on track for that month, he told CBC Radio's Ottawa Morning on Wednesday.

In the meantime, it appears preventative measures aren't working.

"They thought that they would be able to run the train safely with increased inspections, and more frequent maintenance, and the slow orders that take the train much slower through portions of the track," Leiper said.

"Clearly, and frustratingly, it looks like they may have to take yet further mitigations in order to be able to run the train, ahead of fixing the root cause of whatever that problem is that's causing those bearings to fail prematurely."

Residents 'wildly frustrated,' 'jumping ship'

Leiper said people in the city are "wildly frustrated" that the problem hasn't been fixed, and that the root problem hasn't been identified. 

"I talk to people virtually every day who are giving up on transit," he said.

"Once it's working, I have no doubt that we'll get people back. But it's kind of pointless to talk about bringing people back to the system when these kinds of problems keep recurring. I don't blame people for jumping ship."

Coun. Wilson Lo, another member of the transit commission, told Ottawa Morning that the shutdown is frustrating for residents, but he's glad the city is undertaking it in the interest of rider safety. 

"I would much rather be dealing with their wrath because we shut down something out of precaution, than the aftermath of a serious incident," he said.

LISTEN: The full interview with Jeff Leiper and Wilson Lo