2 provincial byelections in August will be a test of public mood, says UPEI political scientist
Outcome won’t shift power, but political implications may still be high, says Don Desserud
When voters head to the polls in two byelections next month, UPEI political science department chair Don Desserud says the results will offer insight into public attitude toward Prince Edward Island's political parties.
Provincial byelections will be held on Aug. 12 to fill vacancies in District 9, Charlottetown-Hillsborough Park, and District 15, Brackley-Hunter River.
Premier Rob Lantz announced last week that cabinet had passed an order in council to allow Elections P.E.I. to issue the writ of election for both districts.
Desserud noted the timing of the elections may pose a challenge for turnout, as many Islanders take vacations during the summer months.
"[It's] always tricky to get people to pay attention to byelections at any time. That's why, normally, turnout in byelections is a bit low," he told CBC's Island Morning Monday.
"We're really interested to see the turnout. You know, this is the Island where people love to vote, so we'll see how that one goes."
Both districts were most recently held by Progressive Conservatives politicians. At least three candidates have been confirmed in each district so far.
What are the stakes?
The byelection results can't change the balance of power in the provincial legislature. Lantz's Progressive Conservatives have a comfortable majority in the 27-seat P.E.I. Legislative Assembly with 19, compared to three each for the Liberals and the Green Party.
Still, Desserud said the byelections could act as a referendum on the governing party.
"Are people happy with what's going on with the Lantz government, with the PCs in general, and do they see this as a way of sending a message?"
District 15 is the riding former premier Dennis King held until he resigned as party leader and MLA in February. He is now Canada's ambassador to Ireland.
Kent Dollar is the district's P.C. candidate, Nicole Ford is running for the Liberals, and provincial NDP Leader Michelle Neill is that party's confirmed candidate.
Meanwhile, District 9 became vacant after Natalie Jameson resigned to run federally as the Conservative candidate in Charlottetown. She lost to incumbent Liberal Sean Casey.
Jameson's husband, Dennis Jameson, has been confirmed as the PC candidate for District 9. Carolyn Simpson is running for the Liberals and Simone Webster is the NDP candidate.
Desserud said the outcome could be particularly significant for the opposition parties.
"Let's say the Greens win one and the PCs win the other — on the assumption the Greens have candidates — that puts the Greens ahead and they become the Official Opposition. That would be a major boost for that party. They'll be getting back to where they were in 2019," he said.
"[For the] Liberals… it's not quite as much of a major boost, but they will see this as [being] on the road back."
And if the PCs lose both ridings, with the other two parties each securing one, the legislative dynamics wouldn't shift, but this outcome could serve as a "wake-up call" for the governing party, Desserud said.
He added that in byelections like these, local personalities matter more than party platforms as voters focus more on issues close to home.
"Normally, what you would see in a byelection is people saying, 'OK, this is what's really bothering us right now. It's not so much the bigger pictures. It's the local picture. What are you able to do about it?'" Desserud said.
The deadline for candidate nominations is Friday, July 25 at 2 p.m.
Elections P.E.I. said advance polls will take place in both districts from 9 a.m. to 7 p.m. on Saturday, Aug. 2; Monday, Aug. 4; and Friday, Aug. 8.
People can update their voter information and find more details about the byelections on the Elections P.E.I. website.
With files from Island Morning